Morphettville Parks Preview: Saturday 21/10/17
- Oct 19, 2017
- 11 min read
The Tony McEvoy & Jamie Kah juggernaut looks set to roll on this weekend. Picture: Ross Holburt
It's Caulfield Cup Day for 2017 and although most punters attention will be firmly on Caulfield, there are still winners to be found in Adelaide. This meeting will be run on the Parks circuit with the rail being in the True position after being out +9m the last time we raced here on the 7th of October.
Small fields are the theme of the day for the majority of the meeting and as seems to be the case in South Australia at the moment, there's a good chance it will turn in to the Tony McEvoy and Jamie Kah show, with the pair combining for a host of key chances throughout the day.
It looks a good day for those willing to take the short odds and those inclined to place some all ups, which is what I'll be doing.
Race 1 1250m Dominant Handicap - $45k
No age restriction. Rating Based. BenchMark 75. No sex restriction. Handicap.
A field of five kick the card off and it should be a pretty straight forward affair. Federal Court and Call Me Curtis will be the two that go forward with the others left to sort themselves out behind them.
Call Me Curtis has been given no chance at his first two runs this time in and I'm very keen on his chances in this affair. 1st up he jumped in front but was restrained all the way back to 3rd last before coming widest and making good ground in an on pace dominated race. 2nd up he was four and five wide throughout and sprinted well at the top of the straight but the run told and he got tired late, finishing 9th, 3.6L from the winner. Zac Spain is riding well since relocating to Victoria and should give him every opportunity to break through for a deserved win here.
Federal Court is the main danger. He's been consistent without winning this prep and perhaps the step up to 1200m might help him break through. His last two efforts have been solid in better races than this behind the likes of Cashed and Bay Road. Tenere has run well fresh in the past but this race will likely be run at a moderate pace which is unlikely to suit him.
Summary: I'd like to see him touch $2.50 (best price currently $2.30), but keen on Call Me Curtis to get punters off to a winning start.
Race 2 1400m Barry Simpson Handicap - $35k
Four-Years-Old and Upwards. Rating Based. BenchMark 70. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Wanted By All, Just For Starters and Night Breeze will be the three to go forward here and the tempo doesn't look like it will be anything other than moderate.
It's impossible to back anything other than the favourite Manuel in this event. This is the first of the McEvoy/Kah shorties today and despite the fact that he's giving between 5.5kg and 9.5kg to his rivals, is at 1400m for the first time, has never raced on a seven day back up before and is a get-back horse in what looks to be a moderately run affair, he looks to quite simply be far too talented here. He won a BM64 on the Geelong Synthetic two back before winning impressively off a five week let up over 1200m in a BM70 here last week. I had him pegged as a seriously smart individual off his trials this time in and Tony McEvoy obviously agreed, sending him to two Stakes races at his first two assignments. He looks just about the best on the card, albeit at a short quote.
Of the rivals, Wanted By All was good when leading last time out before being swamped late and gets every chance to race well again under those same conditions and Equidame is a lightly raced horse who looks to have some ability and could run a decent race at a price.
Summary: Manuel will be too good for his five rivals here. I'd be taking anything down to $1.50 (currently $1.70) and including him in your all-ups.
Race 3 1400m Schweppes Handicap - $45k
No age restriction. Rating Based. BenchMark 82. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Jamie Kah will dictate this race on Dollar For Dollar with Penny For A Pound sitting outside or behind her.
Number two for McEvoy/Kah here. Dollar For Dollar easily accounted for a much stronger field last Saturday when a 2.3L winner over 1200m. That was his first go below 1400m and he obviously relished it. Back up to the 1400m (where he's 2:2-0-0) and with just three other rivals to contend with he should be winning with significant ease. He was stretched out to 2000m earlier in his prep but it appears as though he's much more adept at this distance range, despite being a son of High Chaparral. His form behind Jaminzah and Rebellious Lord is obviously good enough here.
Of the rest, Nipperkin has been racing very consistently in Fillies & Mares grade, wining three on the bounce before two solid 3rd's. She's ready for 1400m now. Penny For A Pound has form behind Moss 'n' Dale and Steel Frost, albeit beaten 3.4L and 4.4L but has been going okay.
Summary: I might have changed my mind, Dollar For Dollar is the best on the card. Would take down to $1.40 and be happy. Again, he's a must for all-ups.
Race 4 1400m Happy 90th Birthday Mum Handicap - $45k
Three-Years-Old. Rating Based. BenchMark 70. No sex restriction. Handicap.
I doubt they'll be breaking any records in this event with not a lot of speed engaged. Dexelation probably takes up the running here out to the 1400m with Paseeto and possibly Phelps Glory handy also.
Jamie Kah rides another favourite for Tony McEvoy here in the way of Paseeto, but I'm not positive it's as clear cut this time around. Paseeto was a strong winner 1st up off the back of a lovely trial, being forced 3 wide from the 800m and prevailing in the end by a touch over a length. He looked to get a bit tired late, but that is to be expected at 1300m 1st up. He goes slightly up in trip but has performed well behind the likes of Eshtiraak and Aberro over 1500m previously so that doesn't pose as issue. The queries for mine are that he is giving weight to some handy enough types and may possibly be a little flat 2nd up off a decent spell. That being said, I'm confident he's a quality horse and is a deserving favourite.
There looks to be a bit of talent in the rest of the field however. Phelps Glory put in a dead set stinker 1st up when well supported off a nice trial. He's shown talent in his career to date and can improve with the blinkers and tongue tie off here. Red Raider went well enough 1st up and will be better suited at this trip, the lack of pace in the race is my concern with him however. The other intriuging runner is the Lloyd Kennewell trained Deplorable. He trialled in good fashion before a lovely 1st up win in a Maiden at Strathalbyn where he settled back in the field and showed a nice turn of foot to win comfortably on the line. He would need to improve here to figure in the finish, but he looks a nice style of horse and gets 4.5kg off the favourite.
Summary: Paseeto looks the best horse in the race and a deserved favourite, but he's rock bottoms odds at the $1.75 for mine. If he touches $2 I'd be very keen to bet.
Race 5 1250m AAMI Lucky Club Three-Year-Old Maiden Plate - $30k
Three-Years-Old. SA/NT Maiden Set Weights. Maiden. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
A lot of unraced horses in this event makes predicting the speed difficult. Of the raced brigade Verlanco is the only one to have shown any real speed. From those that have trialled, only Made In Russia showed speed from the barriers. As such, I don't think they'll be running along at any faster than a moderate speed at best.
Lady of Crebilly opened up as much as $9 but that was quickly snapped up and she's in to $3.90 in most places. She was set an enormous task to win 1st up over 1100m at Gawler. She was restrained early and spotted the leaders a massive start turning for home. She did run home in good fashion though and the step up to 1250m definitely suits. She finished alongside last weeks Edward Manifold Stakes winner Bring Me Roses over 1400m last preparation, so it's clear she has ability. My concern with her in this race is that she's drawn 12 and probably goes back, so it's likely she'll be giving the leaders a fair start again in a race that looks devoid of speed on paper.
Tony McEvoy's first starter Made In Russia is an expensive ($225k) Street Cry gelding owned by China Horse Club. He's trialled twice and has looked okay on both occasions without burning up the track. They've applied the blinkers for his debut and based on his trials he certainly looks a type that will improve with them on. As well as that, he gets the red hot Jamie Kah on board and will be handy to the speed from barrier 5.
The one I'm keen on in the race however is Luvulongtime from the David Aldridge stable. This horse cost a tenth of the price of Made In Russia yet trialled every bit as good as it to my eye in a recent Gawler trial when running 2nd. He showed enough speed from the gates to settle midfield or closer from the inside barrier and I particularly liked the way he worked through the line in his trial, so the 1250m doesn't appear as though it will pose an issue. I dare say if he was from the McEvoy camp with J. Kah on board he would be at least half his current quote.
The chances definitely don't end there in this race. Canford made nice late ground behind Paseeto on debut and is worth following. Hinchin Miss closed nicely behind an all the way winner last time, Verlanco hit the line in encouraging fashion at Mildura on debut and Out Of Kilter is bred in the purple (Street Cry x Arapaho Miss) but will need a further than this.
Summary: Very keen to play Luvulongtime on an each way basis here. He should be able to settle close enough to a moderate speed and the $17 currently on offer is over the odds.
Race 6 1300m Youngcare Grants Handicap - $45k
Four-Years-Old and Upwards. Rating Based. BenchMark 75. Mares. Handicap.
Speed should come from Mazurek and Optimize out wide and With A Bit Of Dash should be prominent as well from the good draw. The pace should be genuine enough in the event.
Embecee Lil is a bit of a favourite of mine at the moment. She appears to be a very talented horse to my eye and has been very good this preparation, even in defeat. Last start the leader, Street Embrace, kicked clear off a moderate tempo and she charged home from the back to run 2nd and they gapped 3rd. I like Todd Pannell getting back on board with the whip in the left, as she can tend to want to lay in slightly and he's riding well currently, highlighted by his win on Steel Frost during the week at Caulfield. From barrier 2 hopefully she can settle midfield and angle out in to clear air when they straighten. If that is the case she'll be very hard to hold out.
Mazurek is the one that will be on speed and hard to run past if she gets the right run in front. Fastbrook was okay last time out behind Another Coldie at Geelong and may improve with the addition of the blinkers here. I'm willing to risk Model Dragon. Even though she ran home well 1st up over 1200m after missing the start I'm not of the belief she's as good as the wraps on her suggest. She can certainly win if she performs to the level of some of her past performances but I won't be on. With A Bit Of Dash has Egg Tart and Kenedna form so cannot be dismissed, however she was only fair at her first two runs this time in.
Sumary: I'm convinced Embecee Lil is a good horse and has better races than this in her. The query is whether or not she gets clear air in time from the inside draw and the current quote of $2.90 is more than short enough. If I could get $3.20+ I'd be very keen to bet.
Race 7 1950m UBET Handicap - $45k
No age restriction. Rating Based. BenchMark 90. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Temps Voleur should take up his customary front running role here with Victory Downs and Fantastic Magic likely to be handy to the speed also. I dare say they'll try and roll along on Temps Voleur here with the claim for Finnegan and try and pinch a break turning for home.
Jim's Journey is a horse I've been following since a couple of impressive trials this time in. He was very good chasing in the Balaklava Cup 1st up behind Balf's Choice, who dominated the race from the front. Following that he was very unlucky when a 0.2L 2nd in the Tokyo City Cup when out to 1800m. He ran through the line well on that occasion after being strung up until the 150m mark and has been competitive out to 2600m in the past, so the extra distance will be to his liking. He appears to be going very well this time in and reports from the Blanch stable confirm that. He is well in at the weights with 58.5kg after Caboche's claim here as well and should enjoy a good run in transit from barrier 3.
If Temps Voleur gets an easy time in front he'll be hard to run down as he's shown in the past. He's carrying 8kg less than Jim's Journey after the claim, so if Finnegan can pinch a break turning for home he'll prove hard to catch. Any on pace bias on the day makes him very hard to beat. Have Plenty won two in a row over this track and trip before finishing well back in the Benalla Cup. He has to be a chance on those two efforts with 54kg. Of the rest both Kourkam and Victory Down look unders for mine, but have chances on their best form.
Summary: Jim's Journey is the clear class in this race and should have won in Stakes grade last time. As such, he's well weighted to win this and gets every opportunity from a soft draw. Keen.
Race 8 1250m The Junction Handicap - $30k
No age restriction. Rating Based. BenchMark 64. No sex restriction. Handicap.
There looks to be decent speed in this. Street Embrace should press forward as has been the pattern at his last two. Raheeba should work forward from a wide draw with All Eez and Spirited Match. Just Wally and You Es Marshal are likely to be prominent also.
This looks a bit of a raffle. There are a few leading chances that need everything to go their way to win, so it could be one of many here. All Eez is the favourite and deserves to be after chasing hard behind Paseeto last time. Paseeto looks a good type and as mentioned earlier looks a strong chance to win again. His Maiden win was quite dominant and he showed it was no fluke last time out, the query today is what Paul Gatt is able to do from barrier 9 in a race that looks to have speed. If he can get cover midfield or better he'll be right in the finish, but at his current price of around $2.90 I'm not willing to rely on what if's.
Vonrasana was a very impressive Maiden winner over 1355m at Strathalbyn back in April and was immediately spelled. The form from that race has been very ordinary and he resumes without a trial. The market support (currently $5) suggests he is fit enough to win 1st up. He will likely get back as well, so if they run along he may be the one swooping.
Street Embrace beat Embecee Lil last start who I already mentioned I believe is a good horse, but goes up 6.5kg on his two wins this time in and this race looks to have more pressure upfront. There's no doubt he'll be competitive but I'm wary the map doesn't suit as well this time around.
Miss Identified is certainly a leading chance after her dominant win last time on the Heavy. She sat back and rounded them up in a few strides before running away a comfortable winner. She's shown she's a quality horse on her day and will be running on. The other horse that I think is a chance in Raheeba. He's coming back from the mile and should be ridden closer to the speed as per normal here. He's another than needs some luck from a wide draw but the $11 is certainly appealing each way.
Summary: Very hard race and one I won't be betting in to. All Eez looks the winner with luck in transit but Raheeba is the one that is over the odds.
Bets
Race 1 - Call Me Curtis - Win
Race 2 - Manuel - Win
Race 3 - Dollar For Dollar - Win
Race 5 - Luvulongtime - Each Way
Race 6 - Embecee Lil - Win
Race 7 - Jim's Journey - Win
Win All Up - Manuel/Dollar For Dollar/Embecee Lil/Jim's Journey
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