Caulfield Guineas Day Preview: Saturday 8/10/16
- Oct 7, 2016
- 5 min read
Assign looks a great chance to get us off to a flying start in the 2400m Herbert Power Stakes.
Picture: Vince Caligiuri, Getty Images
Caulfield takes centre stage this weekend with the massive Caulfield Guineas meeting, which includes the running of no less than 4 Group 1 races. Those races are the Caulfield Guineas, the Thousand Guineas, The Toorak Handicap and the Caulfield Stakes, which has attracted a field of just 3 due to the presence of Winx. The G2 Schillaci Stakes also looks a super race with many top quality sprinters engaged. The G1 Spring Champion Stakes will also be run in Sydney, with the filly Yankee Rose the $2.50 favourite. There's plenty to look out for on what is sure to be a great day of racing and, as per usual there are winners to be found!
Caulfield
The track is currently rated a Good (3) and will probably be that way on race day. The rail is in the True position and the last time it was there the track raced very well.
Race 2 2400m Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes - Group 2 $400k
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.
In a small field of just 7 runners Assign should be able to dictate in front and prove very hard to beat. Prince of Penzance will carry the top weight of 60kg, followed by SA Derby winner Howard Be Thy Name with 53.5kg and the other 5 runners in the race are all carrying 53kg. Assign was 2nd up and jumping from 1700m to 2400m when 2nd last start behind Almandin, who subsequently came out and won the Bart Cummings easily. He will surely strip fitter 3rd up and he beat the others home easily last time out in what was a good performance given he was 2nd up and jumping so sharply in trip. Katelyn Mallyon is a very good rider of front runners and she should be able to give Assign every chance in this event.
Race 4 1400m Catalina Sounds Weekend Hussler Stakes - Listed $120k
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Chetwood jumps in weight from his last start victory in the G3 Cameron but is a proven weight carrier so it doesn't pose an issue in my mind. He started this preparation winning a BM72 and has progressed in 3 straight wins to be a G3 winner over Le Romain, who was subsequently beaten 1.2L in an Epsom Handicap. He likes to get out in front and roll along and has shown this preparation that he can sustain his high pace right through the line. From barrier 9 James McDonald should have no problem letting his stride across and take up the running and Caulfield is typically a track where being up on speed is beneficial. There is the question mark of him coming to Caulfield from Sydney for the first time which has brought many horses unstuck in the past, but he should get a comfortable lead here and be very tough to run past. I wouldn't want to take much less than $2.40 for him though. The lightly weighted pair of Badawiya and Rageese are the two swoopers that may be able to run over the top of him should he goo too hard, not handle the track etc etc.
Race 7 1600m Schweppes Thousand Guineas - Group 1 $500k
Three-Years-Old, Set Weights. No class restriction. Fillies.
I think the Sydney form is superior to the Melbourne form and the market agrees. The Waterhouse filly Global Glamour went to the front in the G1 Flight Stakes at Randwick last Saturday and led the field at a moderate tempo but kicked well to win and defeat Yankee Rose in the process. She is the only horse proven at 1600m and is proven at this level. The horse that beat her home at her previous two starts, Foxplay, is the favourite in this race and definitely the hardest to beat. She won 1st up over 1200m on a Heavy track impressively, spacing her rivals over the last 100m. She then went to the G2 Tea Rose over 1400m and struggled to get clear running until the 150m but once clear she attacked the line to win well. There is nothing to suggest the 1600m will pull her up and she looks a very genuine filly. The best of the Melbourne fillies looks to be Missrock. She was unlucky in the Prelude over 1400m but that tends to happen to horses with her racing pattern. She will probably get back again here but she's proven she possesses a lethal sprint and at the $11 odds looks to be a good each way chance.
Race 8 1600m Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas - Group 1 $1m
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.
As is the case with the 3 year old fillies, I believe the Sydney males are far and away superior to the Melbourne boys. Of the Sydney gallopers I think Impending is the best. He was 3rd to Astern/Star Turn 1st up over 1200m and then followed that up with another 3rd to Astern/Omei Sword in the G1 Golden Rose. At his last start he stepped to 1500m in the Stan Fox with the blinkers on for the first time and won well. He settled back in the field on that occasion and was strong through the line, which suggests the 1600m shouldn't pull him up. Barrier 10 is tricky but he only needs a touch of luck to be winning. Good Standing was only 0.4L behind him in 5th in the Golden Rose and then ran a 1.1L 3rd to him in the Stan Fox. He strikes me as more of a grinder and a horse that will get even further than this, whereas that is a question mark for a number of his rivals here. I wouldn't imagine he will be going back from barrier 11 and I'm backing Hugh Bowman to give him a good on speed steer and give him every chance. I was big on Divine Prophet's chances in this race following his good closing 4th in the Golden Rose when he was back in the field and held up at a crucial time. I went a little cold on him following his run in the Stan Fox however, as he had a dream run and every opportunity to win but Impending came from behind him and beat him. Barrier 1 for a horse that drifts back at Caulfield has taken many, many victims before also.
From the Guineas Prelude, the winner Sacred Elixir was 1st up on that occasion and won well. He had every possible hope there and there were many runners behind him that had hard luck stories. I see him as a major Derby chance and although he should run well here I am not sure he's a winning hope. Of those behind him, Saracino was desperately unlucky and Damien Oliver was soft on him over the last 100m even when he did get clear. He was a very strong winner 1st up down the Flemington straight over 1200m and from barrier 4 he should be on pace as he was on that occasion. He will get the right run on this occasion and should he run a strong mile he is definitely the horse over the odds here that can win the race. There are many others with minor claims but those mentioned above look to be the only genuine winning chances for mine with Impending the clear best of those.
Bets
Caulfield
Race 2 - Assign - 1.5 unit win (Top Fluc)
Race 4 - Chetwood - 1.5 unit win (Top Fluc)
Race 7 - Foxplay - 1 unit win (Top Fluc)
Race 8 - Impending - 1 unit win (Top Fluc)
*Top Tote price as shown on punters.com.au in their results section*
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