Racing Preview: Saturday 17/9/16

Sep 16, 2016
10 min read

Gabella looks to book her place in the Caulfield Cup with a win in the Naturalism Stakes.

Picture: Vince Caligiuri, Getty Images

Randwick is where most of the racing public's attention will be focused this weekend, with Winx aiming for her 11th victory in succession in the Group 1 $500k George Main Stakes (I refuse to call it the Colgate Optic White Stakes). We will also see the running of a number of other Stakes races, including the Heritage Stakes, the Tea Rose Stakes, the Hill Stakes, the Shorts and the Bill Ritchie Handicap. In Melbourne, Caulfield hosts a competitive card of racing highlighted by the running of the Naturalism Stakes, which holds an automatic entry in to the Caulfield Cup. There are also two Listed races from Morphettville in the W.H Wylie Handicap and the Tokyo City Cup. It's going to be a bottomless track there, with heavy rain falling all week, so look for those that love the mud!

Caulfield

The track was rated a Soft (7) as of Thursday night but the forecast suggests fine weather for Friday and Saturday, so it could improve from that rating but not a lot. The rail is out +9m the entire circuit. It played very well last time we raced here when it was out +6m, but with the amount of rain that's hit the surface this week it wouldn't surprise to see the inside section become inferior ground as the day wore on.

Race 3 1400m PFD Food Services Supports Lasallian Foundation Plate

Three-Years-Old. Set Weights & Penalties. No class restriction. Fillies. Set Weights plus Penalties.

I think the Phillip Stokes trained Serenely Discreet is the clear top pick in this race. She was very good in winning 1st up over 1200m on a Soft track at Morphettville, driving through on the inside rail to win by 0.4L. She ran 4th in a 1050m Stakes race as a 2 year old to Modern Wonder/Motown Lil after missing the start so she's shown she's quite talented. I've always had the opinion that she will be a better filly as she got over a bit of ground so the 1400m looks an ideal step today. From barrier 5 Nolen should give her every chance to win.

Najmaat was good 1st up in the Quezette before just being okay down the Flemington straight last time. She was a month between runs on that occasion so she could improve here 3rd up. Perfectly Safe should head forward and has form behind Leotie, who looks a very good filly. Knew It won on debut in a Maiden at Benalla. This is obviously harder but she won as though the 1400m would be of benefit to her and should be considered.

Race 5 1600m Ladbrokes supports National Jockey Trust Plate

Three-Years-Old. Rating Based. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.

This looks a very competitive race, with a number of highly promising 3 year olds engaged. I'm with Awake In Grinzing. He was disappointing in the McNeil 1st up but was ridden far too handy. As highlighted during the week, his last run was very good. He was ridden colder there but was unable to gain clear running until around the 200m mark. Once he got to the outside of the field he found the line in a race fastest 11.74s last 200m. Up to the mile definitely suits and carries 57.5kg after the claim for Ben Thompson.

He's The Boss has had his name thrown around on social media by plenty of punters as a likely type. He has won a Maiden and a Class 1 from his two starts to date and has done so in good fashion. He'll need to step up again. Rocketeer and Benny Goes Berzerk were both good over 1500m at Moonee Valley last time out. They both ran on well on that occasion but I give the edge to Rocketeer in this event. Kaching won in dominant fashion last time out over 1400m in a Bendigo Maiden. He's 5 weeks between runs and up in trip but he was certainly impressive. Harlow Gold is the lone filly in the race and was impressive in winning her Maiden on the synthetic over 1400m. She's suited to the mile but is way under the odds as $4.40 favourite here.

Race 8 2000m Naturalism Stakes - Group 3 $150k

No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.

Gabella was very good 2nd up over 1700m when she settled back in the field and struggled to find clear running until the 300m mark. By that time the leaders had pinched a break and she wasn't a winning hope, but she motored home to run a close 4th behind some good gallopers. Her 1st up run told a similar story, weaving through horses late over 1400m to hit the line nicely. She loves 2000m (9:3-2-3) and won a Stakes race in Adelaide at her only go over this trip in Australia. She is now in her 2nd preparation here after coming from France and we so often see a big jump in performance with these former international horses after they come back from their first prep. You can generally get a pretty good guide on the confidence of the Hayes' team from the market (such as with Faatinah last week) and Gabella is already $18-$10 since markets opened. Despite drawing the outside barrier I'm very keen on her winning chances here.

Jameka was very good last time out in the Dato Tan Chin Nam at Moonee Valley and she looks the main danger to my eye. She had to peel wide at the 1000m mark and try and sustain a long run on that occasion and ran very well to still close to only be beaten 3.8L. From barrier 1 she should put herself just behind a hot speed set by Great Esteem/Tom Melbourne and be close enough as they turn for home. Second Bullet was very good behind Great Esteem last start and is well in at the weights. Tom Melbourne is the favourite and is looking for his ticket in to the Caulfield Cup with victory here. If the track is favouring on pacers he comes right in to the mix. Set Square was very good in the Dato but I feel she may end up too far back from barrier 18 to be a legitimate winning chance. Real Love was great in that race too but got all the favours. Gallante comes right in to the race if it gets genuinely wet. Great Esteem is in good form and must be a chance as well.

Race 9 1400m Sheen Group Handicap

Handicap. No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Apprentices can claim.

I feel He's Our Rokki is the best horse in this race and was fantastic 1st up. He's 3 weeks between runs in to his 2nd up assignment and draws to get the perfect run in transit for Dwayne Dunn from barrier 4. He's a different horse with the application of blinkers, winning 4 of 5 with a 2nd his only miss. I don't think staying at 1400m is an issue for him here and he should be right in the finish.

His biggest danger is Sebring Sun. He's had 2 runs for Darren Weir, both at Moonee Valley, and ran well on both occasions. He ran 3rd in the Golden Rose to Exosphere over this trip as a 3 year old which is good enough for this. He's also getting 6kg off of He's Our Rokki which could be the difference. If neither of those two win it could be any of the other 13 runners. They all have mixed form around one another and any of them could win.

Randwick

The track is rated a Soft (5) at the time of writing but the forecast is for sunny days in the low 20's heading in to the weekend so it should end up a Good (4) or firmer by race day. The rail is in the true position.

Race 5 2000m Ascend Sales Trophies Hill Stakes - Group 2 $200k

Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.

Hartnell was absolutely dominant last start in the Chelmsford over 1600m, winning by 7.8L. That win followed a good return behind Winx over 1400m. Stepping up to 2000m 3rd up is no issue at all for him, he has won the Sky High by 2L and ran well in a Turnbull at his only two tries at this distance in Australia. The small field suits him as he possesses a sprint that is a lot sharper than the rest of his rivals here. He should be winning.

I feel the only horse capable of beating him is Preferment. His last two 2nd up runs were a win in this race last year and a win in the Group 1 Australian Cup, also at 2000m. He did enough late behind Hartnell 1st up and the step up in trip and the fact they're back on to a Good track suits him more than the aforementioned.

Race 7 1100m Bowermans Office Furniture Shorts - Group 2 - $200k

Set Weights plus Penalties, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.

English is a genuine top liner and showed that last preparation with a win in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes. She was phenomenal 1st up last time in, coming from near last on the turn over 1000m in the Challenge Stakes to win in super quick time. She then ran 6th in a Galaxy and 3rd in the T.J Smith to Chautauqua. That form is superior to her rivals here and she trialled brilliantly for this.

Ball Of Muscle is ultra consistent and puts himself in the race. If English gets too far back he's a good chance. Kaepernick showed 1st up last preparation that he is a high quality animal. He will be back in the field with English but I'm not sure if he can sprint with her. Japonsime has genuine Group 1 form but was awful 1st up. I'm willing to give him another chance. Clearly Innocent is a lovely horse and will run well but the 1100m might be too short against this type of opposition. Look for him doing his best work late.

Morphettville

It's rained all week in Adelaide and there is more rain forecast for the weekend, so racing on anything less than a Heavy (9) would be a miracle. The track is out +4m from the 1200m to the 400m and out +3m the remainder.

Race 1 1200m Akeed Mofeed @ Goldin Farms Handicap

Three-Year-Olds. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.

This is a very good 3 year old race. Of the nine runners, seven are last start winners and the other two ran 3rd and 4th at their most recent run! I've gone with Northern Lass as the most impressive of the last start winners and the one I want to be with here. She returned very nicely from a break with a good closing 2nd over 1050m on a Soft track on the 6th of August. She then went to Balaklava, stepped out to 1200m, struck a Heavy track and was utterly dominant, sitting on pace and putting them away to the tune of 4.6L under hands and heels riding. She appears to relish the wet conditions and looks to have come back a stronger and better horse as a 3 year old. Now that she has broken her Maiden I expect her to go on with the job and win again.

Benz is a good horse. He has won 3 of 4 runs to date, most recently defeating Rampage 1st up on a Heavy track over 1000m on the Parks circuit. That horse was then close up behind Serenely Discreet who looks a top chance at Caulfield. He drops 1.5kg for this from his last win with Dylan Dunn's claim. Arrow Lane is super consistent and won nicely last week after a narrow defeat to Serenely Discreet. Poon's claim means he only carries 0.5kg more than the fillies. This is his 4th run in 4 weeks, however, which is a slight concern. My Snip was narrowly beaten by Zunbaqa who has since won again and ran well in Melbourne. She then won her Maiden over 1100m well enough. Gogo Grace was 2nd to My Snip and then went to Gawler to break her Maiden in good style.

Race 3 2016m Anna Olijnyk Handicap

No age restriction. Benchmark 70. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Birds Of Tokyo has found another level since she's struck Heavy tracks and stepped out to 1800m and beyond. She went to an 1800m Fillies and Mares BM78 at Rosehill two starts back against some genuine city class gallopers, went to the front and never looked in danger of losing, running away to win by 6.3L. She then stepped up to 2000m and was caught 3 wide early and over raced before being able to push forward and settle down 3rd after 600m. She still ran well, running 2nd beaten 0.5L. She gets the conditions to suit here and although she goes up to 58kg she has shown in the past she can win when carrying weight. From barrier 4 Michelle Payne should be able to position her near the speed in a race that looks devoid of it and she will be very hard to catch.

Spanish Love is the main danger. She was very good 1st and 2nd up over 1400m/1600m before being average in a strong BM90 over 1700m at Caulfield behind Pin Your Hopes. She had a 53 day freshen up before an even effort over 1800m at Sandown. Her last 2000m run was a 3.3L 8th to Lucia Valentina, but she is winless in 6 starts over this trip and in 6 starts on rain affected going.

Race 4 1200m Sky ATA Trainer's Trust Handicap

No age restriction. Benchmark 75. No sex restriction. Handicap.

It has to be Counter Spin's day today. He's been up for an age now but his last couple of runs don't suggest he's looking for the paddock! Two back he was beaten 1.3L by Outlandish Lad over 1300m on the Parks track in a BM82. The 2nd horse there, Mihany, then went to Moonee Valley and gave a good field a hiding. Last start he was 2nd beaten 0.2L by Pepper The Pin in this grade over 1200m when he looked the winner for all bar the last 20m. Matthew Poon going on is a positive and his claim means this horse gets in well at the weights with 57kg as a 77 rater. He can settle handy from barrier 3 and be ver hard to beat.

Last Bullet is a talented horse, but winning 1st up on a Heavy (10) is a tough ask. He was only 1.75L off Bon Aurumn last time in, however. Mossbeat is another who is talented enough but 1st up. Miss Joolia and Artie Fred are probably the next best. They both race well on Heavy tracks.

Bets

Caulfield

Race 3 - Serenely Discreet - 1 unit win/2 unit place @ $6.50/2.30 (fixed)

Race 5 - Awake In Grinzing - 0.5 unit win/1.5 unit place @ Top Tote

Race 8 - Gabella - 1 unit win/2 unit place @ $10/$3.20 (fixed)

Race 9 - He's Our Rokki - 1 unit win/3 unit place @ Top Tote

Randwick

Race 5 - Hartnell/Preferment - 1 unit quinella @ Top Tote

Race 7 - English - 1 unit win/3 unit place @ Top Tote

Morphettville

Race 1 - Northern Lass - 1 unit win/3 unit place @ $4.20/$1.75 (fixed)

Race 3 - Birds Of Tokyo - 1 unit win @ Top Tote