Racing Preview: Saturday 10/9/16

Sep 9, 2016
8 min read

Rising Romance runs a narrow 2nd to Fawkner in the 2015 Makybe Diva Stakes.

Picture: Vince Caligiuri, Getty Images

It's a fantastic weekend of racing with Group 1 racing coming to us from Rosehill and Flemington! The Golden Rose is the highlight on the card in Sydney, with some of the most promising 3 year olds in the country engaged. The Makybe Diva Stakes at Weight For Age level is the big Group 1 in Melbourne and is always a great race, especially with an eye towards to the later Spring riches.

Flemington

The track is currently rated a Good (3) but there is rain forecast for Thursday and Friday, so it may end up more in the Good (4)/Soft (5) range depending on how much rain comes. The rail is in the true position the entire circuit.

Race 5 1200m Danehill Stakes - Group 2 $200k

Set Weights plus Penalties. Three-Year-Olds, No sex restriction. No class restriction. Apprentices cannot claim.

I'm very keen on the chances of Defcon here. He was an impressive winner of the McNeil 1st up over 1200m at Caulfield, pushing his way through a tight gap on the inside fence before forging clear over the last 100m. He's giving weight to the rest of his rivals here, but based on his performance and appearance last time out he has improved significantly since his 2 year old season and can win again. Barrier 1 isn't an issue in terms of finding clear running as it is a straight race, but if the middle/inside section of the track is off then he will need to be very good.

I'm wary of Archives. He looked a good horse in his two runs as a 2 year old. The blinkers go on today which suggests the Godolphin team believe he is a genuine winning chance. His trials leading in to this have been good enough. Highland Beat, Wazzenme and Hardham (blinkers first time) all come through the McNeil and ran well, especially the first two mentioned. I can't see them turning the tables on Defcon here though. Samara Dancer is the lone filly in the race and a good type of horse. She won the Blue Diamond Prelude in slick time as a 2 year old and has trialled well in preparation for this and must be included as a chance.

Race 6 1200m Bobbie Lewis Quality - Group 2 $200k

Four-Year-Olds and Upwards, No sex restriction. No class restriction. Apprentices cannot claim.

I'm excited to see what Xtravagant can do here. Some of his performances in New Zealand have been nothing short of breathtaking (see below) and if he can translate that to Australia he could be a major player this Spring.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRnvZzyEg3k

His only Australian run was in the Australian Guineas, where he was far too keen early and finished 4.5L off the winner. He has been prepared in Melbourne for this Spring preparation and that should help him a lot this time around. He gets D. Oliver on his back here and although he hasn't been down the straight before I feel if the real Xtravagant shows up he might just be far too good!

Under The Louvre is obviously a danger. He was very good 1st up in the Heath over 1100m at Caulfield, coming from a long way back to be beaten 0.4L by Redzel. His 1200m record is fantastic (14:6-2-4) and he has performed well at Flemington in the past. He does give weight to key rivals, however. Gerald Ryan has been quoted as saying he is a big fan of Kinglike, and outisde of Xtravagant he may be the horse in this race with the most upside moving forward. He won the Danehill on this day last year in very good fashion beating a pretty good field, so we know the straight won't bother him. He was only 0.3L off subsequent Group 1 winner English in the Autumn. Watch Santa Ana Lane, Faatinah and We've Got This as well. They're all capable of big runs.

Race 7 1600m PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes - Group 1 $500k

Three-Year-Olds and Upwards, No sex restriction. No class restriction. Apprentices cannot claim.

Rising Romance was fantastic behind Black Heart Bart in the Memsie 1st up. She was outsprinted by the latter as they turned for home but crossed the line going as well, if not better than the winner. She has a good record at Flemington, including a 0.2L 2nd to Fawkner in this race last year. Based on her return I feel like this might be the preparation where she puts it together consistently and turns placings in to wins in these sorts of races. She's drawn 2 which means she should get the perfect run in transit. She looks a great each way bet here!

Black Heart Bart is a super horse and is a big winning chance again. The mile shouldn't be a problem for him and he's versatile enough to settle anywhere from barrier 8. The query I have on him is that Darren Weir said he was pretty soft for his 1st up run and it may have taken a bit out of him for this second up assignment. Other than that there really is no knock on him. I love the fact that Happy Trails is resuming at 1600m. He usually resumes over 1200m or shorter, which doesn't suit him, so his 1st up record doesn't read well on paper. He's trialled very nicely for this and is a good each way chance. Tarzino is a very good horse and may be able to win up to 1600m and back to Flemington. Palentino, He Or She and Our Ivanhowe can all run well too.

Race 8 1400m Let's Elope Stakes - Group 2 $200k

Four-Years-Old and Upwards, Mares. No class restriction. Apprentices cannot claim.

I think if you swap the runs of Ocean Embers and Don't Doubt Mamma in the Cockram Stakes then Don't Doubt Mamma would've won the race. That's not to take away from the winners performance, it's more to highlight how good Don't Doubt Mamma's return to racing was. Her last 200m of the race on that occasion was blistering. Her record at the track is good and her record at 1400m is great. She's drawn 1 here and will need some luck, but if she gets it she will be hitting the line harder than anything else in the race.

Badawiya is a favourite of mine and won 1st up over 1400m in the Autumn in good style. She was disappointing in Sydney last prep and may be back to her best back to Melbourne. She's only a lightly built filly and might struggle to carry the 59kg she has here, especially 1st up. There are a number of other hopes in this race, including Catch A Fire, Thames Court, C'est Beau La Vie, French Emotion, Telopea and Egypt.

Rosehill

The track is rated a Soft (5) at the time of writing but the forecast looks clear heading in to the weekend so it may improve. The rail is out +2m the entire circuit.

Race 6 1400m De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose - Group 1 $1m

Set Weights, Three-Year-Olds. Apprentices cannot claim.

This has turned in to a fantastic race in the last couple of years, and this looks to be no exception!

I'm trusting my eye here and going with Omei Sword. There are other horses in this race with more impressive resumés, but she was utterly dominant 1st up and looks to have an abundance of natural talent. She took a little while to get in to gear 1st up over 1200m, but once she hit top speed she put them away in devastating fashion. The step up to 1400m suits and the booking of the magic man Joao Moreira is a big tick. She still has to prove that she can do it against the A Grade opposition but she'll get every opportunity to do just that here.

I was torn between Omei Sword and Yankee Rose for a long time before settling on the former. Yankee Rose has won 3 of 4 with her only miss being a close 2nd in the Golden Slipper 1st up last preparation. Her subsequent win in the Sires Produce over 1400m in the Autumn was stunning. Her trials haven't inspired a lot of confidence but the blinkers go back on for this and she looks the main danger for mine. Astern is a colt with a lot of talent and put away a good bunch of horses, many of which he meets again here, in good style last time out. He draws wide here and if they don't press forward he'll need some luck. El Divino and Impending were good behind Astern and are well suited by the rise in trip. Divine Prophet comes through different (and weaker) form lines but was a brilliant winner 1st up when charging from the tail of the field and could measure up.

Race 7 1300m Task Retail Theo Marks Stakes - Group 2 - $200k

Three-Year-Olds and Upwards. Quality. Apprentices cannot claim.

Southern Legend's 1st up win was nothing short of fantastic. He returned in a BM85 over 1000m with 60kg on his back, settled back in the field and ran on strongly to win. The third placed horse from that race, Felines, has since won at Group 3 level so the form has stacked up. He is much better suited out to 1300m here and drops 7kg in weight. He's building an impressive overall record (6:4-0-0) and from barrier 3 he will get every opportunity to add another win to his tally.

Tycoon Tara is a big danger to the top pick. Since joining the Snowden team she is 2/2 with impressive front running victories in the 1200m Missile Stakes and Show County Quality. The extra 100m won't bother her, she's 3/4 at this trip. Counterattack has genuine Group 1 form from his 3 year old season behind the likes of Japonsime and co. His most recent trial was good and the fact that he's kicking this preparation off at 1300m suggests he's ready to win.

Morphettville

The track is rated a Soft (6) at the time of writing but it rained quite heavily on Thursday so there is a chance of a downgrade. The rail is out +2m from the 1200m to the 400m and True for the remainder.

Race 1 1050m Orange Spot Bakery Handicap

Three-Year-Olds. Rating Based. Benchmark 64. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Arrow Lane would be a very deserving winner here. His overall record is 8:1-5-1 including three 2nd's in his past four runs. Those three 2nd's have been by a combined 1.3L lengths. Back to the 1050m is no issue and he gets in with 56.6kg after the claim for gun apprentice Matthew Poon. He's a brilliant rider of front runners and should send this horse to the front and be very hard to catch.

Our Gladiator was only 2.1L away from Ariaz on debut. She returned with a narrow victory on a bog track at Corowa after 144 days away from the track. Danny O'Brien brings Flash Boy over from Victoria for his debut run here and must be repsected. No public trials to go on with him so watch the market. So You Too is talented and ran well in tougher races last time in but I suspect he will need it a bit further.

Race 8 1600m UBET Handicap

Four-Year-Olds and Upwards. Rating Based. Benchmark 64. No sex restriction. Handicap.

As the top rated horse in the field, Zipnotized gets in very well at the weights with 56.5kg after the claim for Eran Boyd. She's having a very good preparation this time and finds a very winnable race. She was a dominant winner over 1550m in a BM60 on the Parks track before a good 3rd when up to a BM75 when 2.4L behind Sandhill Warrior and Portion Control - those two horses would be winning this. She should be on pace from barrier 4 and the wetter the better for her. Her record at the distance is great (4:2-1-1) and here's hoping she can close out the card in good style for us!

It looks a genuine dartboard job behind her. If you're playing the quaddie and don't want to take Zipnotized one out go wide - very wide.

Bets

Flemington

Race 5 - Defcon - 1 unit win @ $4 (fixed)

Race 6 - Xtravagant - 1 unit win @ 4.80 (fixed)

Race 7 - Rising Romance - 0.5 unit win/1.5 unit place @ $8.50/$2.60 (fixed)

Race 8 - Don't Doubt Mamma - 1 unit win/2 unit place @ $7/$2.50 (fixed)

Morphettville

Race 1 - Arrow Lane - 1 unit win/2 unit place @ $5/$1.90 (fixed)

Race 8 - Zipnotized - 1 unit win/2 unit place @ $5/$2.20 (fixed)

Rosehill

Race 6 - Omei Sword - 1 unit win @ Top Tote