Memsie Stakes Day Preview: Saturday 27/8/16
- Aug 25, 2016
- 5 min read
Picture: Vince Caligiuri, Getty Images
As we saw last week with the return of champion mare Winx, the Spring Carnival is right around the corner! The first Group 1 of the season will be contested on Saturday with the running of the Memsie Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield. As well as that, there is stakes racing from Caulfield and Rosehill, with many potential stars set to begin their Spring preparations. As such, as well as backing winners, it is imperative to keep on eye on the future and find a few horses to follow throughout the Spring that will hopefully become cash cows for us.
Caulfield
The track is currently rated a Soft (5) at the time of writing but the forecast looks fine and sunny heading in to Saturday so an upgrade is possible. The rail is out +6m the entire course and we know that may advantage leaders around this circuit.
Race 1 1400m wedrive.com.au
Three-Years-Old. BenchMark 78. Fillies. Handicap.
Leotie really caught the eye charging home late to run a narrow 2nd to the very smart filly I Am A Star over 1100m at this track two weeks ago. She was back 12th in running from barrier 13 on that occasion, but with just a field of 7 engaged here she should be well within striking distance on the corner. Her last 200m split at her last outing was 11.49 seconds, which was good for the second fastest closing sectional of the day. She's 3rd up and looks suited down to the ground by the 1400m here, and while there isn't much meat on the bone in regards to her price, she looks the winner here and one to follow moving forward.
In terms of dangers, Sebrikka has shown plenty of ability in her short career to date. Her win in a 1200m 2YO Handicap at this track was fantastic, coming from 10th at the 400m to record a strong victory. She's 6 weeks between runs but has had a trial on the 16th of August to keep her fit. The other Hayes' & Dabernig runner Perfectly Safe is yet to miss the placings in 4 career starts and must be considered, however I'm of the opinion that her form around horses such as Hey Doc and Gridelin is second tier. The one tick for her, though, is that she should be the leader in this and if the track is playing towards on speed runners she could be the one.
Race 7 1400m New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes - Group 1 $500k
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Standard Weight for Age.
Black Heart Bart has always been a very good galloper but he has gone to new heights since joining the Darren Weir stable. His last 5 runs include a win the the G1 Goodwood Handicap as well as 3 G1 2nd's in the Newmarket Handicap, the All Aged Stakes and the Stradbroke Handicap. His 1400m record overall is exceptional (10:5-4-0) and is the main advantage he has over his rivals in this event, with most of them likely to be looking for further than this. He maps to get a perfect run from barrier 5 and is the deserved short priced favourite.
Of the rest, Palentino was good enough 1st up over 1200m. He was back in the field and made solid ground over the last 200m. He should be more suited here at 1400m but will need some luck from barrier 10. Charmed Harmony has been a great horse for connections, winning 13 races in his career and 8 over this trip. He should press forward from barrier 3 along with Lord Of The Sky and be hard to run down. He is also very effective fresh. Mahuta was good 1st up in the Bletchingly before being disappointing in the Lawrence in what was his first defeat over the 1400m at his 5th try. He was reported to have pulled up lame though so I am willing to give him another chance based on his super form last preparation. There are plenty of other top stayers resuming, so I advise keeping an eye out for those doing their best work late.
Morphettville
The track is rated a Soft (5) at the time of writing but the forecast looks clear so we may see a Good track come race 1 Saturday. The rail on the Main Track is out +8m from the 1200m to 400m and +6m the remainder. The rail on the Parks circuit is out +3m from the 1000m to 400m and in the true for the remainder.
Race 3 1100m Syd McDonald Snr. Memorial 3YO Maiden Plate
Three-Years-Old. Maiden. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
I was quite taken with the run of the Robert Smerdon trained Gatlinburg 1st up at Caulfield on the 30th of July in what has turned out to be a strong form race. He drew wide and ended up back in the field and inside runners and didn't have a whole lot of room in the straight, but still ran through the line very nicely. The winner of that race, Derryn, has since run 2nd in a G3 in Sydney and he was only beaten 1.7L by that galloper. He's had nearly a month to get over that 1st up run and the extra 100m suits.
The main danger on exposed form is clearly Smart Manoeuvre. She is winless in 4 career starts, but has two stakes placings to her name. My queries on her are that she is 1st up whereas Gatlinburg has the run under his belt. Also, she's drawn 1 and may get bottled up down on the fence when she needs to be out building momentum. I don't doubt that she'll run well but I think we will see the best of her over further than the 1000m trip.
Rosehill
The track is rated a Heavy (9) at the time of writing and will stay that way. The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 7 1200m MTA Run To The Rose - Group 2 $175k
Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Set Weights plus Penalties.
This is always a great race to watch with an eye to the future, with winners of this race generally heading on towards the rich Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas later on in their preparations. It looks to have attracted a high quality field again this year.
I've settled on Winx's little half-brother here, El Divino. He had two runs as a 2 year old, the first of those being a dominant on pace victory on a Heavy track over 1000m in a Gosford Maiden. He followed that up with a gutsy dead-heat victory in the G3 Kindergarten Stakes over 1100m after being wide without cover all the way. I loved his first trial this time in where he went to the line with Capitalist and was very pleased with the last 50m of his second trial where he picked up and found the line strongly late. He's drawn 1, and being from the Gai Waterhouse stable, it wouldn't surprise me if they took this colt to the lead as they did with him on debut. He looks to have a stack of ability but he'll need all of it to win here.
Of the others, Astern is a winner of 3 of 4 with his only miss being in the Golden Slipper. He trialled fantastically for his return here and is stacked full of talent. Tommy Berry was full of praise for Star Turn after the colt returned a good winner of the G3 San Domenico 1st up. He looks to have come back a physically better horse and has race fitness on his side. Impending has been trialling superbly recently and has some residual fitness from racing in the Brisbane carnival but is short enough in the market.
Bets
Caulfield
Race 1 - Leotie - 1 unit win (Top Tote)
Race 7 - Black Heart Bart - 1 unit win (Top Tote)
Morphettville
Race 3 - Gatlinburg - 1 unit win ($3 fixed)
Rosehill
Race 7 - El Divino - 0.5 unit win/1.5 unit place ($6/$2.1 fixed)
*Top Tote price as shown on punters.com.au in their results section*
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