Interstate Racing Round Up: Saturday 14/5/16

May 13, 2016
8 min read

Picture: Vince Caligiuri

The BTC Cup is the first Group 1 of the Winter carnival in Brisbane and there looks to be a good field engaged. As well as that it's the standalone meeting from Scone for their Dark Jewel Classic day. Hopefully the track plays better than Hawkesbury did when it had it's standalone meeting a couple of weeks ago! As well as those meetings there is a typically strong meeting at Caulfield.

Caulfield

The track is rated a Good (4) at the time of writing and should remain that way. The rail is out +3m the entire circuit.

Race 1 2000m Racing Photos Handicap

No age restriction. BenchMark 90. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Speed from Commanding Time and Doctor Care and not much outside of that. The hurdlers Angelology and Gingerboy may press forward and both possess good flat ability.

Raw Impulse looks almost the best bet anywhere in the country today and his very short quote suggests that. He has had two runs in Australia for Darren Weir, starting with an impressive win over 1500m at Moonee Valley. Following that he stepped to 1800m and was dominant, settling back in the field before striding away to win by 3.25L. The step up to 2000m looks to suit him even more and considering he is the second favourite for the Doomben Cup he should be far too good for this lot.

Doctor Care is the second of Weir's three runners in this event and looks the next best. He will go forward and should have an easy time of it with not much speed engaged in this. He was a good 3rd to Zahspeed at Sandown when up to 1800m and then sat on speed and just outlasted Real Love to win when out to 2000m, where he is 6:3-1-1. If they go slowly in front he may prove tough to get past.

Golden Mane looks the other one with a hope. He ran 3rd to Doctor Care last time after running 3rd at Mornington behind Velox. He will get back with Raw Impulse but I can't see him beating that horse home.

Advice: It doesn't take a genuis to say Raw Impulse will win this and head on to better races, but he looks a great way to start the day on a winning note.

Race 4 1400m Comdain Handicap

Three-Years-Old. BenchMark 78. Fillies. Handicap.

Speed from Lyuba, Valentine's Reward, Andrioli and possibly Weather The Storm from outwide. Be careful backing on pacers that draw wide over this track and trip as there is an uphill run early and any early work they do tends to tell at the end of the race.

Lyuba is building an impressive record, having won 3 of her 4 starts to date with her only miss being a 2nd to Abbey Marie (subsequent Group 1 winner). From barrier 3 she should find a good position on pace without working and gets in with 55kg after Ben Thompson's claim.

Francais ran 3rd to Abbey Marie/Lyuba last time out at her first Victorian run. She was midfield in that event and ran through the line well. I would have thought she was looking for further based on that run and from barrier 12 she may do it tough here.

Gingie was a nice winner over 1200m at Sandown last time out and can run well again here with 51kg for Ben Allen. Weather The Storm was 3rd in that race and has talent but has her work cut out for her here from barrier 13. Miles Of Krishan won well enough on debut when well supported and looks to have fair ability.

Advice: Lyuba is drawn to get the right run and has the runs on the board of late. Abbey Marie made her form look pretty handy!

Race 6 2000m The Jericho Cup In 2018 Handicap

Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Speed will come from Prince Of Babylon, Fair Isle and Defence Witness. Last Typhoon and Super Charm may settle handy also. Unbreakable led last time but I think he settles further back in this.

Unbreakable should have just about won the Mornington Guineas 2nd up but was held up for most of the straight. Following that he went to the mile and ran a good 2nd to Bengal Cat in the Gold Reef beating Tarquin who runs in the SA Derby today and has franked that form. At his last start over 1800m he was caught wide for the first 400m of the race and pressed on to lead. He settled well, kicked on the turn and won by 2.5L despite working early. He's drawn to get a much softer run here and will carry 58.5kg after the claim for Dee.

Red Alto is still a Maiden but his last two runs have been full of merit. Two back he hit the line hard alongside Burton (talented) when running 3rd to Loyalty Man at Sandown. Most recently, he was well back but ran through the line well when beaten 2.9L by Unbreakable. He will run well but it's hard to see him turning the tables here. Lightning Bell also comes through the Unbreakable race (2nd) and can run well again.

Advice: Unbreakable has been very good this preparation and looks perfectly placed to win again.

Doomben

The track was rated a Good (4) at the time of writing and should stay that way with fine and sunny conditions forecast. The rail is in the true the entire course.

Race 7 1200m UBET BTC Cup

No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Standard Weight for Age.

Two Blue will go forward from out wide with Malaguerra, Echo Gal, Dothraki and Fell Swoop all capable of settling towards the front.

Malaguerra was an arrogant winner of the Star Kingdom over 1200m at Rosehill before stepping up to WFA for the first time in the All Aged and being butchered by Blake Shinn (as he admitted). He was running up backsides after handing up the lead and was buffeted from pillar to post in that event when I feel he had a lot to offer. He's yet to prove himself at the WFA scale but I fancy a more positive ride here will give him every chance to show that he is indeed good enough.

Fell Swoop is a beauty. He tries his guts out every time he runs and his record shows that (14:9-3-0). He measured up to WFA when 2nd in the TJ Smith and won the Victory Stakes here last time out (just!). He's drawn a tricky gate in 10 but he will no doubt be in the finish.

Japonisme ran very well in the Lightning, Newmarket and William Reid before a narrow victory in the Arrowfield on the 9th of April. The 3rd and 8th horses in that race have won since. He has been kept ticking over for this with a good trial on the 6th of May.

Artlee was completely luckless 1st up and it would be wise to forget that run. 2nd up he was well back early in the Victory Stakes but charged late to be beaten 1.2L to Fell Swoop. He will get back again here and be running home but it may end in a similar result. Watch him here and get on when he gets to 1350m and beyond.

Dothraki has been very sound this preparation. His runs in the Oakleigh Plate and Galaxy (7th beaten 2.15L and 3rd beaten 1.3L) were very good and he ran quite well in the TJ Smith when 5th beaten 3.5L. He's drawn down in barrier 1 and will do no work early and is the best roughie.

Advice: Malaguerra gets his opportunity to measure up at WFA here after a horror story last start in the All Aged. Fell Swoop is in brilliant form and never stops trying. Japonisme has been super this prep. Dothraki looks the best of the outsiders at $13.

Scone

The track was rated a Soft (5) at the time of writing but with fine and sunny conditions forecast we may get an upgrade to a Good (4). The rail is out +3m from the 800m to the winning post and in the true the remainder.

Race 5 1400m Inglis Scone Guineas

Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Set Weights.

Spill The Beans should go forward with Girl Sunday, Professor Marx and Dark Steel handy.

Spill The Beans won the Hawkesbury Guineas in good fashion after some good form earlier in his preparation. He was given an easy time in front in that event and relished it, kicking clear to win by 2.3L. He may not get it that easy in this event but has the strongest form lines of these and must be a huge chance.

Supply And Demand looks clearly the biggest danger to Spill The Beans. He returned from a spell in great order, winning a 1000m BM72 on Anzac Day by 1.3L after settling well back in the field. At his only 1400m run so far he was a good winner and ran good time, albeit in a Maiden. He's only had four career starts and is on the up but this is easily the hardest race he's contested and 1000m-1400m 2nd up is hard to do.

Advice: I wouldn't think anything that ran behind Spill The Beans at Hawkesbury could turn the tables here and he looks the one again. Supply And Demand is on the upward spiral but I have some reservations as highlighted above.

Race 6 1300m Yarraman Park - Horsepower Luskin Star Stakes

No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.

Speed should come from River Lad, Ninth Legion and Decision Time. Music Magnate should settle behind those from an inside draw.

Music Magnate is a ripper. Her record of 10:5-3-1 is fantastic and the Bjorn Baker stable is flying currently. She returned from a 189 day spell to win the Hall Mark 1st up on a Soft track after crossing from barrer 11 to sit outside the leader. That's no easy task! 1300m suits better here, her 2nd up record is very good (3:2-1-0) and she has been kept going for this with an easy trial win on the 2nd of May. Even 3.5kg above the minimum she looks very hard to beat.

Federal looks clearly the biggest danger. He was good 1st up from nearly a year off when winning a BM85 over 1400m. He was back in trip 2nd up when settling back in the field and running home strongly to finish 4th to Music Magnate beaten 0.4L in the Hall Mark. The extra 100m suits here but most importantly he has a 4.5kg swing in the weights against Music Magnate. He should get back again from barrier 8 but will be hitting the line hard late.

Clearly Innocent has won 6/8 including a dominant victory in the Country Championships Final over 1400m last time out. She looks to have plenty of ability and trialled nicely behind Music Magnate on the 2nd of May. I feel 6 weeks between runs and a stronger field than she's come up against previously are both against her here.

Advice: Finding it really difficult to split Music Magnate and Federal in this. Federal gets the big swing in the weights over Music Magnate but she has more upside from her 1st up win. Back both?

Our Bets

Caulfield

Race 1 - Raw Impulse - 3 unit win @ $1.40

Race 4 - Lyuba - 2 unit win @ $3.50

Race 6 - Unbreakable - 2 unit win @ $2.50

Doomben

Race 7 - Malaguerra - 1 unit win @ $6

Scone

Race 5 - Spill The Beans - 2 unit win @ $2.1

Race 6 - Music Magnate - 1 unit win @ $3.2

Race 6 - Federal - 1 unit win @ $2.60

*Prices are as they appear on Sportsbet at time of writing*