Midweek Racing Preview: Wednesday 11/5/16
- May 11, 2016
- 4 min read
Picture: Michael Klein
It's wet all around the country this week! At the time of writing we are racing on Soft tracks at both Balaklava and Sandown Lakeside, but with plenty of rain around it would be no surprise to see us racing on Heavy tracks at some stage throughout both meetings. As is always my thought process, it may pay to avoid backing horses racing 1st up, as the rain affected going can tend to bring them unstuck.
Balaklava
The track is rated a Soft (7) at the time of writing with some rain overnight Tuesday and a chance of rain Wednesday. The rail is in the true position for the entire course. The course has raced fairly at the past few meetings and I'd expect the same again.
Race 5 1600m My Butcher Handicap (Heat 1 UBET Up & Coming Apprentice Series)
No age restriction. BenchMark 64. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Take note that this is an apprentices race. Another Al and Devon appear to be the two that should press on towards the lead. Rain Attack may cross and sit handy with In Taipei and Jocks Glen next.
I think Freedom Road has returned in good order this preparation and can win now 3rd up. 1st up she ran 4th beaten 4.3L to Cocoa Doll coming from 12th on the turn. At her most recent run she was again 12th on the turn and ran on well to run 5th beaten 4.1L over 1500m. She drops 4kg in weight for this assignment and should be peaking 3rd up. She is making a habit of being a bit of a constant black booker, but I trust Ryan Hurdle in this apprentices event to give her the right run to win one here.
Moosem won over this distance at this track two starts ago, settling at the rear and running on strongly to score. He then stepped up in trip/grade at Gawler and found it a bit tough. Back in distance here he is a chance and Cartwright rides which is good in this event.
Another Al was good 1st up at his first run for Ryan Balfour and looks to be the best of the on pace runners. Riccone was good enough in his return from a spell and has run some nice races on rain affected going. As with Another Al, staying at 1600m 2nd up may not be ideal if they are looking for further.
Advice: This race is set up for Freedom Road 3rd up out to the mile. She will get back but I think she's good enough to run over the top of them. Another Al is the one if there is an on speed bias.
Sandown Lakeside
The track is rated a Soft (7) at the time of writing and could end up in the Heavy range with some more rain forecast before Wednesday. The rail is out +13m the entire course.
Race 1 1400m The Grand Hotel Frankston Plate
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. Maiden. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
Outdone should go forward with Golden Maneki, Makatiti and My Running Mate all handy.
Makatiti was very good 1st up on the speed off an 87 day break on a Soft track at Cranbourne. Before his break he ran a good 2nd in a 3YO BM64 at this track and trip before leading and only being run over late behind Hardern over 1600m in a 3YO BM70 at Caulfield. Will be very hard to get past here in Maiden grade.
Guru Jim looks the biggest danger. He's had three runs this time in for a fast finishing 3rd, an okay 4th and another fast finishing 3rd last time out over 1400m on a Heavy track at Warrnambool. He handles all track conditions and will be the one closing hard late but I think he will give Makatiti too much of a head start.
Advice: It looks Makatiti's race to lose here. He's drawn well, should get a pretty easy time towards the front and should win.
Race 7 1200m Bushnell Outdoor Products Handicap
No age restriction. BenchMark 78. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Charles In Charge and Tankster look to be the ones that should head forward here with Secret Blend, Bon Rocket and Nullei all settling towards the speed.
I was taken by Secret Blend's win 1st up Ballarat over 1000m on the 26th of April. He settled just behind the leaders and was desperately held up for the first 200m of the straight. When he finally got out he let down beautifully to win by nearly a length. The step up to 1200m here shouldn't be an issue nor should the wet track. His most recent 1200m run was a 2nd to Forgive And Forget in similar grade and the middle draw suits as does the claim.
Bon Rocket looks to be a good chance also. He was 1st up off a 297 day break when a fast finishing 2nd to Andrassy at Caulfield. He has won twice at 1200m but will get over further as his prep progresses. He's drawn down in barrier 1 which could be an issue in the conditions but he must be a chance off of his return performance.
Caprese looks the other obvious danger. He's racing very consistently this time in and was a good 3rd to Jezzabba/Rib Eye over 1400m last time out. He has a great record at this trip (9:2-2-3) and loves it wet, so from barrier 8 with 53.5kg for Ben Allen he is right in the mix here.
Advice: In a tough race I'm with Secret Blend. I thought his 1st up win suggested he'd come back a better horse than he went out. Caprese with his light weight will be running on and Bon Rocket was very good 1st up and could improve further here.
Our Bets
Balaklava
Race 5 - Freedom Road - 1 unit win
Sandown Lakeside
Race 1 - Makatiti - 2 unit win
Race 7 - Secret Blend - 1 unit win
*Prices are as they appear on Sportsbet at time of writing*
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