Morphettville Preview: Saturday 7/5/16
- May 6, 2016
- 18 min read
Picture: Dean Martin
We've prepared a huge preview of the card at Morphettville, with two big Group 1 races at Morphettville this Saturday, the $400k Australasian Oaks and the $400k Robert Sangster Stakes. Both races have attracted really good fields and are sure to be highly competitive and entertaining.
The track is rated a Good (4) at the time of writing with some rain forecast early in the week. It should be fine and sunny from Wednesday onwards though so it would be fair to assume we'll be racing on top of the ground.
Race 1 2000m Quayclean Handicap
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.
8 horse field after scratchings and Mr. Journeyman may come out after running at Warrnambool on Thursday. Rooboy will lead with River's Lane and Flying Skipper pressing on towards the front as well.
Have Plenty was a strong winner last week in lesser grade over this trip. He drops 4kg in weight for this rise in class. Two back he was only 1.2L off Master Of Arts who won the Warrnambool Cup during the week.
Killarney Kid has won his last three all over 2000m, taking his record at this trip to 6:4-0-0. He sat just off the speed in a small field last time and won quite comfprtably despite the 0.8L margin. He rises 2kg in weight for that win.
Tidy Prophet seems to be at her best over this distance (5:2-2-0). She won the Port Lincoln Cup before a solid effort in the Adelaide Cup. She was freshened up before a slightly disappointing 4th over 1700m at Gawler. Willing to look past that run but perhaps she's had enough for this preparation.
River's Lane has been consistently racing well and is a chance again. Rooboy will lead and if he gets an easy time in front he may prove tough to get past.
Summary: Have Plenty won well last time out and has run well behind some good gallopers recently. Killarney Kid is flying but $2.20 doesn't leave much meat on the bone.
Race 2 1600m MAC Drink Driving? Grow Up Handicap
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.
This looks to be a pretty open race. Excites Zelady will go forward with Generous Beau and Flow Meter. Coachella may head towards the front from a wide draw.
Zebrinz has been racing like a coming winner this time in and he gets his chance here. Two back he was beaten 3.65L by Black Heart Bart over 1400m at Group 3 level and last time out he ran on well from the rear to be beaten 1.25L to Red Bomber at level weights. Draws barrier 11 here but will be getting back anywhere.
Tonopah looks the biggest danger. He's 3rd up from a spell and his first two have been encouraging, firstly being beaten 2.85L in the Hareeba over 1200m and then doing his best work late over 1400m at Caulfield after being well back throughout. Gets his chance here.
Kingdoms is a well performed horse over further than this but does race well fresh (7:2-0-2). In his most recent 1st up assignment he was 3rd over this trip in Open class at Doomben. He's with Michael Hickmont now and watch any market leads for him here.
Flow Meter is up in grade but down in the weights and has raced consistently this prep. He'd probably have to improve to win this but 54kg is a positive. Excites Zelady is always a chance in these races and was only beaten 2L in the CS Hayes three back. Coachella finally gets to the mile 3rd up and seems to be looking for it. She's drawn barrier 10 so it might be tricky but she's a chance. Tenere was much better 2nd up and he has run some really good races here at the mile in lower grade.
Summary: Zebrinz has been knocking on the door and gets his best chance to break through this prep. Tonopah is peaking 3rd up is weighted/drawn to get the right run. Watch market moves for Kingdoms at his first start for Michael Hickmont.
Race 3 1050m Seven News Queen Adelaide Stakes - Listed $100k
Two-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
There looks to be heaps of speed in this with Moqla, Tris, Moshki and Sylpheed all capable of leading. Not sure what the first starters will do.
Tris was a good winner of the Breeders Stakes on the back of a dominant Maiden victory. She drawn 4 here and there's no reason she can't win again.
Exilia Miss won very well at Bendigo at her second start after a spell. She was well back in the field and ran on strongly late to score. The Corstens' team won a 2 year old stakes race here last week with a debutante so you must respect them here and this filly can figure in the finish.
Moqla won easily here two back and then ran well below expectations in the Dequetteville Stakes, beaten 5.7L. She gets the blinkers on and I'd expect her to jump and run here and bounce back.
Watch market moves for the debutantes.
Summary: Tris has won her last two very well and should be right in this. $12 about Exilia Miss is overs and looks a good each way play.
Race 4 1100m DC McKay Stakes - Group 3 $120k
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.
Super One has shown plenty of speed in his starts to date and should lead them up here. I Am Gypsy, The Messina Nymph and Thermal Current can all sit handy too.
Thermal Current is racing fantastically this prep. 1st up he was good over 1000m behind Malaguerra beaten less than 2L. After that he was good in winning the Hareeba at Mornington. Last time out he was midfield and hit the line hard running 4th beaten 1.6L to Miss Promiscuity. Drawn 2 and can win again.
Scratchy Lass is a very talented mare that's won her last two. She sat wide outside the leaders all the way when winning in good fashion on Adelaide Cup day before winning the Oakbank Stakes over this trip on the 26th of March. She's had a trial since then to keep her fit but has drawn barrier 11.
Nostradamus showed his talent when he won the Irwin last start in good style. He drops a kilo in weight and draws barrier 3 here but I find him very hard to trust. I'd like to see him put two together before I jump on.
I Am Gyspsy has run 2nd at her last two in stakes company being beaten a combined 0.3L. She's drawn 10 here, as she did last time, and will look to cross and either lead or get a trail behind Super One. She's a top chance here and really deserves her black type win.
Daytona Grey was very impressive winning the Manihi 1st up and then ran well again when beaten 1.6L in the Irwin. He will no doubt be over the odds again and from the inside draw with 54.5kg he will be competitive.
I don't know how to line Super One up. He looked like a star in his first four starts in Singapore winning all of them impressively. He came to Australia and was beaten in an average Open Handicap at Cranbourne before running 11th beaten 12.8L in the Coolmore down the straight. The Freedman stable may have figured him out now but the $4 they're offering (making him favourite) looks ridiculous.
Summary: Thermal Current has returned in great order for Weir and is a top chance to win this. Scratchy Lass/Daytona Grey are both overs and I Am Gypsy deserves to win.
Race 5 1200m UBET Stakes (Registered as Euclase Stakes) - Group 2 $250k
Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
Looks to be just even speed in this. Miss Gunpowder and American Star may head forward with Secret Agenda, Faatinah and Sooboog all capable of being handy.
This looks to be a super even race! Miss Gunpowder has been terribly in at the weights when running 2nd at her first two runs this time in, firstly behind Viddora over 1050m and then to Don't Doubt Mamma over 1100m. She finally gets some weight relief and has drawn 2 here. She should put herself right in the leading division here and be very tough to get past.
Super Cash was unlucky behind Miss Gunpowder last time after a super run in Sydney. She was checked at the 200m last time just when she was building momentum and lost a few lengths. She picked up and ran through the line very nicely for 3rd. She's an emergency for the Sangster later on the card and I think she is a chance there, so she must be a big chance in this.
Demonstrate is in cracking form. He stormed home from the rear when running 2nd to Stellar Collision at Moonee Valley 1st up. Following that he was midfield on the rail and didn't get to build any momentum as they straightened but ran home well for 2nd behind Rageese. That horse came out and brained them in a Group race here last weekend. Barrier 15 is the only concern.
Secret Agenda was good 1st up over 1200m before being outclassed in the Newmarket. She then went to Sydney and struck two wet tracks. She was back in the field in the PJ Bell which isn't her go and ran 10th. After that she settled 4th in the Sapphire at Group 2 level and ran well, running 2nd beaten 1.8L. I think she's better suited back in trip here and will get a good run from barrier 7.
Almighty Girl beat Secret Agenda in the Typhoon Tracy but had a fitness edge over her there. She was 50 days between runs at her next start when 5th beaten 1.7L to Miss Promisicuity in the Vobis Gold Sprint. She will be better for that run and has shown she's a filly with a lot of talent.
Cocoa Doll was very good behind Don't Doubt Mamma last start and showed she could measure up to this company. American Star was massive in that race, crossing and working hard and sticking on well. Jalan Jalan was 3rd to Petits Filous and then 2nd to Miss Promiscuity when leading and is a chance again. I was all over Sooboog last time out but he let me down, as he has done to punters time and time again. The switch to the D.K Weir yard may help his consistency issues but I can't back him again. Brockhoff and Mr Individual can run well too!
Summary: As you can see, a very open race here. I think Miss Gunpowder maps perfectly and should be peaking 3rd up for this. She's on top in a tough race. Demonstrate is overs because of the gate he's drawn and is a good each way prospect.
Race 6 2000m Schweppes Oaks (Registered as Australasian Oaks) - Group 1 $400k
Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. Fillies. Set Weights.
In a big 16 horse field there should be speed. Believe should head forward with Bengal Cat. Lopartega, Silent Sedition and Riverina Bella are all likely to be handy. C'est Beau La Vie may also head forward again from a wide draw.
C'est Beau La Vie has come back a seriously improved horse this time in. She won the Laelia in really good style over 1600m after winning 2 of her first 3 runs this time in. Last start she drew barrier 20 and crossed to lead in the Auraria over 1800m. She worked hard to get to the front and then got taken on from the 800m but still kicked clear alongside Silent Sedition and was brave to the line, running 2nd beaten 0.3L. She's drawn poorly in barrier 13 again here which is disappointing, because had she drawn well I would have been super confident in her winning this. If she presses forward again or manages to find cover she will be hard to beat.
I had some queries on Silent Sedition running out the 1800m last start but she well and truly put me in my place. She was very strong through the line after sitting on speed and she's drawn perfectly to get the right run in transit here from barrier 7. Since returning from a spell she is 4:3-1-0, stepping up in distance and class as her prep has gone on. She only won by 0.3L last time out but she beat 3rd by 3.4L. She's a massive chance to repeat the dose and win again.
Bengal Cat is in fantastic form. She has won her last two starts, both over the mile. She sat 2nd at Sandown and booted clear on the turn, beating Silent Sedition by 3L in very good style. Following that she went to the Vobis Gold Reef and jumped straight to the front, kicked on the turn and won well defeating Tarquin/Unbreakable. Both of those horses won last Saturday at Caulfield and are SA Derby bound. Barrier 19 makes it tough for her here, but if she can get across without having to do much work she is a major player.
Arcadia Dream is trying to emulate the feat of Delicacy last year and come across from WA and win this race. She also comes through the WA Oaks and WA Derby, running 2nd in the Oaks before a strong win in the Derby. Her overall record of 12:5-4-1 is super and she is obviously in fantastic form. She's drawn the outside barrier so William Pike is going to have to produce a peach of a ride to give her every opportunity to win.
Abbey Marie is a really interesting runner here. She's only had two career starts over 1300m and 1400m and won both in very good fashion. She's a full sister to ATC Oaks winner Absolutely so she's bred to get over ground. Mick Kent has said she is fit enough to run the trip and they're only 3 once, so that's the reason she's here. Her last win was huge. She was last on the turn at Caulfield and stormed home to win and they don't do that very often. From barrier 3 she'll get every opportunity. Big watch.
Comprende has been super in the traditional lead ups to this race. She hit the line nicely when running 2nd to C'est Beau La Vie in the Laelia and then was good (albeit getting all the favours) when 3rd to Silent Sedition in the Auraria. She has drawn barrier 15 here and will probably get back, so it will take Dom Tourneur's best to get her in to a winning position. She's had perfect runs at her last two starts and if she finds trouble here she could be a risk.
Sacred Eye has been begging for a dry track. She has shown in three runs on wet ground that she doesn't go a yard in it. She will be back on top of the ground here which helps. She's had two runs over this trip, the first of which was a dominant win in the Norman Robinson in the Spring. Her other 2000m run was a sound 4th in the Adrian Knox on an unsuitable Soft track. She's drawn very wide here and will need a lot of luck, but if she get's it she can figure in the finish.
Believe is a filly still in her first race preparation. She won her first two over 1300m and 1500m and the form behind her from those wins has been good. She then ran 3rd in the Phar Lap over 1500m before stepping up to the 2000m and just boxing on to run 9th beaten 4.8L in the Vinery. At her last start she was super in running 3rd beaten 0.7L in the ATC Oaks over 2400m. She will no doubt go forward from barrier 14 here and should get across comfortably. The query with her is the drop back in trip and whether or not that suits, and I'd suggest it could be a negative.
Pasadena Girl enjoyed a fantastic start to her career but has been poor since returning in the Autumn. She was good 1st up, running 3rd in the Angus Armanasco before refusing to leave the gates 2nd up in the Kewney. She then went up to Sydney and was okay in the Emancipation beaten 3.3L. At her most recent run she was quite poor in the Queen Of The Turf, running near last beaten 10.5L. Her only 2000m run was a close 4th to Jameka/Tarzino in the AAMI Vase and a repeat of that would put her right in this, but she doesn't look to be anywhere near that level currently.
Asinara has some form in the good fillies races in Sydney. She ran 3rd in the Keith Nolan to Vinery winner Single Gaze before running 7th in the Vinery beaten 3.5L. Following that she was 4th in the Packer Plate beaten 3.3L where she made some good late ground. The 2000m looks to suit her but she has drawn barrier 18 and will likely get a fair way back from out there.
First Impressions is the WA Oaks winner, beating Arcadia Dream. Her form around that win has been average at best though, with her last start being a 4.25L 7th in a BM78 over 1800m. You would've liked to have seen better from her after her Oaks win and Pike has the pick of the Williams horses and chose Arcadia Dream here, so that says something.
Beluga Blue got a mile back last start in the Auraria and was never a chance. Prior to that she was good when running 4th in the Laelia when making good ground late. Her only 2000m run was a 2nd in the Wakeful which reads well for this. Could be one over the odds that runs a cheeky race.
Summary: It would be great to see a local trainer win this race and I think C'est Beau La Vie is a massive chance to do just that for Leon Macdonald despite drawing wide again. Silent Sedition is the clear danger and will get the gun run. Abbey Marie must be respected.
Race 7 1200m UBET Classic (Registered as Robert Sangster Stakes) - Group 1 $400k
No age restriction. No class restriction. Fillies and Mares. Standard Weight for Age.
Sheidel should press forward from the inside gate with Petits Filous, Miss Promiscuity and Vezelay all heading forward also. Wawail, Tycoon Tara and Miss Seton Sands can all settle handy. This looks a great edition of this race!
Griante should have won the Oakleigh Plate 1st up but was knocked down at the 300m. After that she went to Sydney and won the Galaxy in good style. Last start she gave some good horses weight and made some decent late ground to finish 6th, 3.2L off the winner in the Sapphire. Barrier 3 means she gets the perfect run and that is a big positive for her here.
Don't Doubt Mamma was enormous in winning the Redelva last start, flying home the last 100m to catch Miss Gunpowder right on the line. Before that she won the Vanity over 1400m 1st up and then ran 2nd to Badawiya in the Kewney. She's drawn 15 and should get back but she's shown that she can reel off some serious late splits and can't be dismissed.
I love Badawiya as a horse. Her 1st up win over 1400m in the Kewney was outstanding before a 4th in the Emancipation and a well beaten 7th in the Queen Of The Turf. This race looks like an afterthought but she is a seriously talented filly and cannot be underestimated. She's had two goes at this trip, with a 7L Maiden win and a luckless 7th in Listed company at Mooney Valley. Drawn 17 but will run well.
I was disappointed when I saw Super Cash was 1st emergency. If she does get a run though I believe she is right in the race. She was huge in Sydney when 5 wide and last most of the way and still ran on. Last start she was 3rd behind Don't Doubt Mamma/Miss Gunpowder but she was tightened for room and lost all momentum when she was winding up and should have finished closer. From barrier 7 here she is a definite hope should she get a run.
Sheidel won a lot of races (11) in WA before heading to Hayes & Dabernig at the start of this prep. When she was winning in Perth she was leading and she gets every chance to do that from barrier 1 here. Last start she sat behind the leaders and won the Bel Esprit Stakes, narrowly beating Girl Guide/Under The Louvre. She's 3/3 at 1200m and a repeat of her last effort puts her in the finish here.
Sultry Feeling won the Triscay 1st up over this trip beating subsequent Group 1 winner Peeping. She was then freshened up and won again, this time in the Birthday Card at Group 3 level. At her last start she was back and wide before making her run down the outside fence and ran 7th beaten 3.5L. She can settle closer to the speed here and looks to be a top chance.
Runway Star races really well at Morphettville (4:2-0-1) and has returned to racing well for Phillip Stokes. She won the Matrice 1st up well enough before closing hard from back in the field running 3rd to Nostradamus in the Irwin. She is 7:4-0-0 at 1200m and with pace on up front she will be hitting the line hard late.
The bubble burst with Petits Filous last time in the Arrowfield in Sydney. She's shown serious talent, running super times when winning a number of her races in lower grade than this. She won first up over 1100m running slick time, but the form behind her from that event hasn't been franked. She was then awful in Sydney after crossing from out wide. Her last run was too poor for me to be in her corner here but she should improve back to her own sex.
Tuscan Sling burnt me last time out when I thought she was a dead set moral. If you are forgiving of that run and go back to her previous form in front of/behind Azkadellia then she must be considered a chance. 2/2 at 1200m and barrier 2 are both in her favour.
Precious Gem has never won at 1200m (8:0-4-1) but has run well. She has come back in great order this prep, running 2nd to Thermal Current 1st up before a great closing effort in the Anniversary Vase over 1400m. The positive for her is she is racing well, the negative is the fact she is 0/8 at this trip and might be just below this class.
I Love It will no doubt come up overs here. She was great without winning in the Spring, running 4th beaten 0.7L in the Alinghi before being beaten 1.7L in the GH Mumm down the straight. After a short spell she ran 2nd in Group 3 company in Tasmania before a win over 1400m in a Group 3. She's had a short break since and races well both 1st up and over this trip. From barrier 5 she is one for the multiples and a possible knock out hope.
Scarlet Billows is racing in great fashion this prep, running on hard at her first two runs before a good win over 1400m last time out. If the speed is on she will be hitting the line, I just don't know if she is good enough to win.
Summary: Griante gets barrier 3 and will get a soft run from there. She should be hard to beat. Don't Doubt Mamma and Badawiya will be charging late, so if the speed is on watch out for them. If Super Cash gets a run she will be over the odds. Runway Star is the one the locals will be cheering home.
Race 8 1600m Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Queen Of The South Stakes - Group 2 $175k
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. No class restriction. Fillies and Mares. Set Weights plus Penalties.
18 horse field here to finish the day so you'd assume there would be speed. Marli Magic, Fair And Equitable, French Emotion, Muy Bien, Zeprise Journey, Metaphorical and Indarra will be amongst those pressing forward.
I've loved the last two efforts of Into The Mist since she has had the blinkers applied. She ran a super 3rd to Raw Impulse at Moonee Valley where she didn't look comfortable at the track before coming to BM90 grade here and winning with a leg in the air. She draws 5 and carries 55kg here and should get the perfect run in transit to win again.
Mefnooda flew late to dead heat 1st up at Mornington over 1200m before a good win over 1400m at Caulfield. She raced like the step up in trip would suit her on that occasion and she has a lot of upside. Barrier 4 means she will do no work and should be very strong late.
French Emotion is absolutely flying since being sent down from Sydney to Melbourne. She won four in a row from 1200-1400m before running consecutive 2nd's to She's Miss Devine and Scarlet Billows. Those two horses are quality. She is having her first go at the mile here and has drawn barrier 16, so I am prepared to risk her but her form speaks for itself.
I think Loveitt has ability. She was a very impressive winner in midweek company at Sandown over 1400m. She then went to Flemington on Anzac Day and got too far back out of her ground but hit the line very well along the rail to run 3rd beaten 1.2L. She is on the up but she might get too far back again, especially from barrier 15.
Atlantis Dream would have been a higher pick here but she has drawn 17. 1st up she was very good behind Written at Bendigo against the bias before running solidly behind Nevis at Sandown. She then went to 1700m at Flemington on ANZAC Day and ran 2nd beaten 0.75L. She peaked on her run on that occasion and the drop back to 1600m suits.
Hijack Hussy puts in a black book run every start these days but doesn't win. She was great at Bendigo in the Gold Bracelet when charging home against the pattern before running on solidly in an on pace dominated race at Sandown. Last time out over 1600m at Flemington she settled near the rear and ran on only fairly beaten 2.6L. She does drop 4kg in to this though.
Metaphorical has run well in two efforts since a freshen up. She was 2nd to Felicienne in the Matron Stakes beaten just over a length over this trip before running soundly in the Sunline Stakes when 3rd to Miss Rose de Lago. She's drawn barrier 14 here and that makes it difficult.
Felicienne is another that would've been a greater chance if not for drawing wide. She's drawn in 19 here but is racing in good fashion. She won the Group 3 Matron over 1600m after being beaten 3.7L/2.5L by Tuscan Sling/Azkadellia. She then went to the Sunline Stakes at Moonee Valley and was only fair running 5th to Miss Rose de Lago.
Summary: Into The Mist is racing well and likes this track. She maps perfectly from her gate. Mefnooda profiles very similarly to her. She's drawn 4 and $12 is overs. Loveitt is significant overs at $31. She may be worth an each way bet.
Our Bets
Race 1 - Have Plenty - 1 unit win @ $6.50
Race 3 - Exilia Miss - 1 unit each way @ $12/$3.50
Race 5 - Miss Gunpowder - 1 unit win @ $4
Race 6 - C'est Beau La Vie - 1 unit each way @ $11/$3.50
Race 8 - Into The Mist - 1 unit win @ $7
*Prices are as they appear on Sportsbet at time of writing*
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