AFL Preview: Round 5

Apr 23, 2016
5 min read

Round 5 is upon us already and the ladder is starting to take shape. The top of the ladder looks a throwback to the 1990's, with North Melbourne the only undefeated team remaining sitting atop the standings and the Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Geelong rounding out the top 4. At the other end of the table, Carlton remain winless alongside Fremantle, who only last year were playing in a Preliminary final. Is it panic stations yet? It seems after 4 rounds the ladder may be starting to look somewhat like it may come the pointy end of the season.

Last night's game was as epic as most thought it would be, so let's hope it's followed by a belter been two heavyweights in Sydney v West Coast at the SCG on Saturday afternoon. Of course, the classic ANZAC Day match at the MCG between Collingwood and Essendon will be a huge game as usual on Monday, only this year it features two struggling teams. As we know though, form means little in that contest.

Sydney v West Coast, SCG, Saturday 1:15pm

3rd v 6th on the ladder face off in what shapes to be a great game of football. These two teams haven't played at the SCG since 2010, with the last 5 meetings being at Domain Stadium. Sydney won 4 of those games, but the resurgent Eagles of 2015 handed the Swans a 52 point belting at their most recent meeting. The Eagles haven't won at the SCG since 1999, and Sydney have won 12/15 overall at that venue. Both teams are 3-1, with the Eagles only loss coming against Hawthorn at the MCG and the Swans only loss coming at the hands of the red hot Crows in Adelaide.

The Swans had media personnel questioning where they would be positioned this season, but their early season form has surely silenced the doubters. Convincing wins against the struggling Carlton and Collingwood were dominant, and their performance against GWS was solid. They were fantastic against the Crows last week but were just outgunned late. That loss looks good now given the Crows performance against the Hawks. The form of Lance Franklin has been crucial to their success as has their elite midfield production.

The Eagles have been impressive too and look to be in for another good year. The only blemish on their record was a poor loss at the hands of the Hawks. Josh Kennedy has been quiet since his round 1 bag, but the Eagles have still been finding a way to hit the scoreboard. Nic Naitanui looks to be heading in to career best territory and should be the dominant ruckman on the ground.

The Stats

Points For: 115-109

Points Against: 76-79

Kicks: 205-209

Handballs: 186-151

Disposal Efficiency: 73%-74%

Inside 50s: 67-55

Contested Possessions: 162-142

Uncontested Possessions: 232-221

Tackles: 69-69

Turnovers: 73-62

Bets

Sydney Head To Head - 1 unit @ $1.72

Total Game Points Over 166.5 - 1 unit @ $1.88

Bonus Bet

Lance Franklin AFL Fantasy Score Under.

There is no getting around it, Buddy’s record against the Eagles is putrid (for his lofty standards). In the 14 matches he has faced West Coast during his career, he has averaged 68.6 (with the help of a lone 127 back in 2011), making them by far his worst fantasy team. Although only one of these scores has occurred since his move to Sydney, that one score is a lowly 78 in a win at Domain Stadium in 2014. The stingy eagles are not only winning plenty of ball themselves, but restricting the oppositions key targets with Jack Gunston (104) being the only key forward to score a ton against the eagles so far this year, which also happened to be the Eagles’ only loss. Even with his good scores of 91, 86, 106 and 96 this year, the numbers don’t lie when it comes to Buddy vs the eagles.

Port Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:45pm

Port Adelaide host Geelong in a match that will tell us a lot more about both sides. The weather forecast looks fine and Port will be desperately hoping to put out something that looks a lot different to the dismal effort they displayed against GWS last week. Geelong have won 4 of the last 5 between these clubs (and 11 of the last 12 since the '07 Grand Final), including a 23 point victory at Adelaide Oval last season.

Port have been very ordinary this season, yet can still find themselves equal 8th on the ladder with a win here. They've beaten St Kilda and Essendon at home and suffered two ugly losses at the hands of the Crows and the Giants. They have looked sluggish and disinterested at times and have been getting exposed heavily over the back of their press. Captain Travis Boak needs to lift big time, as do Charlie Dixon and Matthew Lobbe, if Port are to get back to anything near what they showed in 2014.

The Cats on the other hand have looked good. A fantastic win over reigning Premiers Hawthorn (and a starring performance from the Mayor of Geelong Patrick Dangerfield) had supporters ready and raring to go for season 2016. An easy 12 goal win over Brisbane in Geelong followed their only loss, which came against the Giants away from home. The Cats were ordinary against Essendon last week, struggling to score and only pulling away late, winning by 5 goals in a game they would've expected to dominate in every facet.

Although Port will undoubtedly get a rev up from Ken Hinkley, I can't see how they can turn around last weeks performance in such a short space of time against this standard of opposition. In saying that, football is a funny game and anything can happen once the first ball is bounced, and teams have turned around after worse performances than Port's last week to win. Port pride themselves on their contested ball and tackling pressure, so watch for that early to get a guide on how they've bounced back. The Cats will surely be prepared for the Power to come out all guns blazing, and if they can withstand the early pressure they should be too good here.

The Stats

Points For: 99-97

Points Against: 111-68

Kicks: 193-201

Handballs: 171-162

Disposal Efficiency: 70%-75%

Inside 50s: 58-57

Contested Possessions: 151-137

Uncontested Possessions: 213-228

Tackles: 73-69

Turnovers: 72-60

Bets