AFL Preview: Round 4

Apr 15, 2016
6 min read

Things are starting to even themselves out as the season progresses, but as it is still early, the form lines aren’t entirely solid. We had a good week last week, with our best value bet (Luke Parker winning the Brett Kirk medal) our best result.

Round 4 is a difficult round for betting. There are a few heavily one sided games (Hawthorn, West Coast, Bulldogs, Geelong) and a few games that could easily go either way. It looks a high scoring round, and a good week for the big key forwards in the game.

Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval, Saturday Night

Going on recent history, Sydney are clear favourites. They’ve won 4 of the last 5 encounters against Adelaide. 3 of those were played in Adelaide, with only the most recent being played at Adelaide Oval. That game saw the Swans go in as 16.5 point favourites ($1.40), which looked silly in the end as the Swans ran away 52 point winners.

Sydney have improved offensively from last year, averaging over 110 points for, while only conceding 65 points over the first three rounds. This is compared to 88 points for and 72 points against over the 2015 season. This is thanks in no small part to the presence of Lance Franklin. With Tippett being able to pinch hit up forward when not rucking (6 goals in the last two weeks) and Adelaide only really being able to rely on Daniel Talia to hold down one of their two big forwards, we expect one of either Tippett or Franklin to get off the leash and kick a bag. This should result in Sydney kicking at least 100 points which we see them needing to do anyway in order to beat the high scoring Crows (100ppg last 25 games).

Jared McVeigh comes back for the Swans and this should further strengthen their already deep midfield. For the Crows, the underrated Tom Lynch is back in the lineup, with Riley Knight making way. This is the Crows' biggest test so far this season. The Swans have been a measuring stick for year upon year, and this season is no different. We can see Sydney winning this game, with Buddy playing a major role in the victory.

Bets: Sydney -1.5 - 1 unit @ $1.92, Total Points Over 180.5 - 1 unit @ $1.88

Brisbane v Gold Coast, Gabba, Saturday Late Afternoon

Gold Coast have made a statement so far this year. They've been very, very good to date and remain one of three teams that are undefeated. Tom Lynch is verging on superstardom if he's not already there and the much publicised Aaron Hall is now an elite AFL on baller no matter what way you look at it. Combine those two with the re-emergence of one of the best players to ever pull on a guernsey in Gary Ablett Jnr. and you've got a team capable of doing some serious damage. Brisbane, however, are in a completely different boat, not even on the same body of water. They've got some solid building blocks to work around but a mounting injury list and a lack of composed and senior players makes for a miserly year for this once highly successful club.

Sometimes the weather in QLD can make any game a fight but the forecast has clear skies and minimal wind. Gold Coast is slick and relies on their skill and quick movement and this news will have them champing at the bit.

Whilst Brisbane leads the overall win count between these two sides 6-4 the improving Suns have won 3 of the last 4 by an average of 44 points. If that wasn't evidence enough to say that the Suns win this contest easily, then factor in that the Suns are averaging 114 points a game this year, while Brisbane are averaging 80. Keep in mind that Brisbane are leaking an absurd amount of points against (125) and this has all the makings of an old fashioned beat down. Daniel Merrett and Harris Andrews are both persistent, but with the amount of ball expected to be coming towards Tom Lynch and the amount of goals big key forwards have been kicking against Brisbane (8, 5, 4.4) I expect him to increase his early lead on the Coleman Medal with a nice bag of goals.

Bets: Gold Coast -18.5 - 2 unit bet @ $1.92, Tom Lynch to kick the most goals in the match - 1 unit @ $2.25

Essendon v Geelong, MCG, Saturday Afternoon

I don’t think there is any question as to who wins this game, Geelong are $1.04 favourites and are probably unlucky not to be $1.01. The real question is how much will they win by?

Its hard to go on previous form with Essendon because this season is so markedly different, but we can go on the 2015 match up in which Geelong won 122-53. Even more recently, in the NAB Challenge this pre season, Geelong demolished the 'Dons by 87 points after keeping them to 3 goals for the entire match. These results, as well as the fact that both of Essendon’s losses have been by 61 points this year (Gold Coast, Port Adelaide) indicate that things could get messy.

While Geelong have rested Corey Enright for this game, Tom Lonergan comes back in and will prove a difficult matchup for Joe Daniher. His inclusion allows Harry Taylor to roam free and set up counter attacks from half back as he does so well. Any question over whether a premier mid from Geelong may be pinned down by Ryan Crowley has been snuffed out by his omission and the fact that Selwood and Dangerfield really started to click last week (18 clearances between them). This is an ominous sign for Essendon, and the rest of the competition. Tom Hawkins ground into gear last week (4.4) and should capitalise on a huge number of inside 50s. I cant see anyone in Essendon's undermanned and inexperienced backline being able to keep him quiet.

Bets: Geelong -58.5 - 2 units @ $1.92, Tom Hawkins to kick the most goals in the match - 1 unit @ $2.25

Around The Grounds

In other games this round, I can’t see Richmond being able to stop Andrew Gaff. He is averaging 31 disposals a game this season and the Eagles look to feed him and utilise his lethal left boot. Dan Hannebury is an elite ball winner and looks to be coming in to the peak of his career. He had 31 disposals last week and had 40 the last time he lined up against the Crows. If you double up both of these guys to get 30+ disposals you'll get $3.40, and that is certainly worthy of some consideration.

As mentioned in the game previews above, both Tom Lynch (GCS) and Tom Hawkins should have big days at the office. If you're feeling greedy, a double of both of them to kick the most goals in their respective matches gives you odds of $5.06. If you're after some value this looks a good play.

Round 4 Tips

West Coast @ $1.20

Geelong @ $1.04

Hawthorn @ $1.09

Gold Coast @ $1.36

Western Bulldogs @ $1.09

Sydney @ $1.83

Port Adelaide @ $1.98

Melbourne @ $2.95

North Melbourne @ $1.25

Best Multi - West Coast/Gold Coast/Sydney - $2.97

Best Value Multi - Sydney/Port/Melbourne - $10.68

Value Bet

As the Brisbane v Gold Coast game is an intrastate contest, the Marcus Ashcroft Medal will be awarded to the best player on the ground. Aaron Hall would be a good selection, but he's not going to average 36 disposals a game for 2016 and I think it might be this week that he's pegged back a notch. Gary Ablett is an out and out superstar and will most likely have 30 touches and kick a few goals. However, referring back to what we have mentioned regarding the Brisbane defence and Tom Lynch’s insatiable form (13 goals in 3 weeks), we can see him taking the honour. $7 seems great value.

Final Bets:

West Coast v Richmond

Andrew Gaff Over 30 disposals - 1 unit @ $1.60

Sydney v Adelaide

Sydney -1.5 - 1 unit @ $1.92

Total Points Over 180.5 - 1 unit @ $1.88

Gold Coast v Brisbane

Gold Coast -18.5 - 2 units @ $1.92

Tom Lynch to kick the most goals in the match - 1 unit @ $2.25

Tom Lynch Marcus Ashcroft Medal - 1 unit @ $7

Geelong v Essendon

Geelong -58.5 - 2 units @ $1.92