Royal Randwick - The Championships Day 2 Preview: Saturday 9/4/16
- Apr 8, 2016
- 13 min read
The second day of The Championships comes to us from Royal Randwick, with four Group 1's on the card highlighted by the $4m Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
The track is rated a Soft (6) at the time of writing, with rain forecast for Friday. I wouldn't imagine the surface will get any better than a Soft (6), but there's every chance it could get in to Heavy territory.
Race 1 1600m Fernhill Handicap - Listed $150k
Two-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.
Crown Him should head forward from a middle draw with Prized Icon a chance to cross from out wide to be handy. There doesn't seem to be an abundance of speed in this affair.
The Group 3 1400m Baillieu on the 26th of March looks to be the main form line for this race. Obscura was super in that race, clearly the best of the closers in an on pace dominated race. At his third race start and out to the mile for the first time he should be more than competitive.
Prized Icon has run 5 placings from 6 career starts including a sound 2nd in the Baillieu last time out. Has to give the rest of this field 2.5-3kgs which makes it tougher for him, seeing he wasnt far ahead of some of the others last start.
Crown Him was every bit as good as Prized Icon last time out. He found the line nicely from midfield, and being by Casino Prince the mile shouldn't pose an issue. The $8 looks good each way value here.
Bets: Not overly keen to bet in this.
Race 2 1400m McGrath Estate Agents South Pacific Classic - Listed $150k
Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.
Handfast, Dark Steel and Suspense have drawn the inside three gates and should all push forward. Mawahibb and Not A Cherry could come across from wider out. The speed looks to be genuine enough.
Tulsa has never run on rain affected going, but assuming he handles it I think he is very hard to beat here. 2nd up he was beaten 0.6L in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes at 1400m. He was then slightly plain in the Randwick Guineas, but was well back and forced to go back to the inside. He gets the blinkers on for the first time today. Well weighted with 55.5kg.
Santa Ana Lane was a very good winner 1st up in the Group 3 1200m Zeditave Stakes defeating some good types. 2nd up he was well back over 1200m in the Darby Munro and made solid late ground, beaten only 3.2L. Was a very good winner in sharp time on debut on Soft going. 59kg the query.
Puritan was brilliant in winning the Group 3 Manfred 1st up over 1200m. His next two runs have been solid (both over 1200m) after settling back in the field both times. I thought they would have got to 1400m sooner. Would be my top pick if not for the terrible barrier (19).
Kimberley Star is an ultra consistent filly, Suspense is unbeaten in four career starts and Mawahibb is racing in decent form. All are not without chances.
Bets: Blinkers on, get on. Happy to back Tulsa 0.5 units each way.
Race 3 1400m The Provincial Championships Final - $400k
No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
Speed from the inside with Minnesota, Danish Twist, Dream Lane and Marple Miss all capable of pushing forward early. Not sure what Zestful will do from the outside barrier. In a 15 horse field there should be genuine speed.
May have been better off pinning the field to a dart board and throwing a few darts in trying to land on the winner of this one. In the end I settled with Hetty Heights. She's won 4 from 9, including her last 2 in dominant fashion, one of which was on a heavy track. Has drawn well in barrier 5 and carries 54kg for Avdulla.
Danish Twist is another well weighted runner, with 54kg on her back for Damien Oliver. She's drawn well to get a perfect run from barrier 2. Her last two runs have been good enough and she is adept on rain affected going.
Supreme Effort beat Mersault 1st up over 1200m, then was a tough winner over 1350m at Wyong. He has to carry the top weight of 57.5kg and all five of his wins are on top of the ground. He has run nice races on Soft going though.
Better Not Blue and His Majesty are hopes but have drawn horribly. The chances don't end there!
Bets: Pass!
Race 4 1200m IG Markets Percy Sykes Stakes - Group 3 $500k
Two-Years-Old. No class restriction. Fillies. Set Weights plus Penalties.
Speed looks to be abundant from the outside with Thyme For Roses, Genetau and Prompt Response likely to roll forward. Najmaat and Palomino may also be handy.
If Thyme For Roses can get across or get cover from barrier 11 I think she will be hard to hold out. She led last start in the Group 3 Breeders over 1200m and kicked clear at the 300m to win by nearly 3L, beating some of the others in this race. She has won on a Soft track already in her career, which is a positive.
Twist Tops is 2:1-1-0 on rain affected going and has been beaten 2.9L to Scarlet Rain and 1.5L to Calliope/Omei Sword at her last two. Has had a nice trial to keep fit since then. 54kgs, barrier 5 and Avdulla are all positives.
Prompt Response was okay first up at 1200m in the race Twist Tops ran 3rd in when handy to the speed. She gets the blinkers on today and won a trial nicely on Soft going on the 29th of March. Looks big unders though.
Missrock looks to be a blowout chance here at $21. She was stunning on debut, coming from last on the turn at Caulfield to record a devastating win. At her second start she was good behind Concealer and Prompt Response. Forgiving her failure before a spell. Keep very safe.
Soviet Secret and Emphatically must be considered also.
Bets: Going to have to pass again.
Race 5 1200m Arrowfield Sprint - Group 2 $500k
Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Set Weights.
Speed out wide from Petits Filous and Ghisoni. Bassett, Takedown and Spill The Beans all could press forward. Wouldn't think Hellbent and Japonisme would be too far off the speed, which looks to be strong.
A very competitive 3YO sprint here. Have to go with Japonisme on top I think. This preparation reads - a 0.2L 3rd to Chautauqua in the Group 1 Lightning, a 1.25L 5th in the Group 1 Newmarket and a 0.2L 3rd in the Group 1 William Reid. His last run on a Soft track was an easy win in the Group 1 Coolmore in the Spring. He is 4 from 6 on rain affected going. Clearly the superior form lines.
Petits Filous is the danger. She has won 5 of her 6 career starts, with her only failure in the Group 1 Moir where she was beaten 3.8L. She returned with a very good winning, smashing the clock over 1100m at Caulfield. Drawn barrier 13 and this will be her acid test today.
Spill The Beans was a good winner 1st up on a Soft track beating Le Romain over 1200m. He's unbeaten on Soft going and is back from 1400m for this which suits him better. Barrier 2 means he should get a nice run in transit.
Think Ghisoni is the value at $13. She has shown great ability in her career to date, with the only run she hasn't saluted the judge being a 2.4L 6th in the Group 1 Coolmore. She looks a knockout chance back to 1200m and freshened up.
Counterattack, Stellar Collision, and Hellbent are in the mix in an open race.
Bets: The form lines Japonisme comes through are on another level to the rest. 1.5 unit win bet.
Race 6 2400m James Boag's Premium Australian Oaks - Group 1 $1m
Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. Fillies. Set Weights.
Believe and Self Esteem could come across from wide barriers and Sacred Eye could push through from the inside to be handy. With the lack of speed in the race, I think Jameka will have to try and come across and be handy from barrier 16.
Jameka picks herself on top in this. Powerful Victorian Oaks winner on a wet track in the spring at her 5th start of that preparation. This preparation, a 1.05L 4th in the vanity, a 2L 5th in the Australian Guineas, a 2L 3rd in the Rosehill Guineas, and a 3.3L 2nd in the Australian Derby have her primed to repeat the Oaks dose in Sydney. All she needs is even luck from a horror outside draw.
If Jameka isn't the winner, then it becomes a wide open race. Happy to go with Honesta as the next best. Her preparation has been aimed towards this race from the get go and she has improved with each run. She was 2nd to Jameka in the VRC Oaks.
The Vinery has always been a reliable form guide for this race, and Single Gaze won that race in good fashion. She won strongly at the 2000m and there is no reason why she shouldn't be right in this. She beat New Zealander's Valley Girl and Capella in that race. They both ran well and Tavago showed us in the Derby that the New Zealand staying form must be respected. That ties in New Zealand Oaks runner up (on protest) Sofia Rosa. She's a winner and could easily figure right in the this.
Happy Hannah is a lightly raced filly with plenty of upside. She was very good in the Vinery and her breeding on the Dam side (out of Absolute Joy) suggests the 2400m won't pull her up.
Bets: As was the case in the previous race, have to trust the A+ form lines. Jameka 1 unit win bet.
Race 7 3200m Schweppes Sydney Cup - Group 1 $2m
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.
Cafe Society should lead and lead easily. Dee I Cee will sit second and Gallante can sit handy also. Cafe Society should roll along in front and ensure it's a properly run 3200m race.
With Who Shot Thebarman in this years Sydney Cup. He was beaten in a photo finish by Grand Marshal in last years edition. I thought his run in the Group 1 2400m BMW was fantastic last start behind Preferment. Is in okay at the weights with 57kg.
In a reverse of last years quinella, I'm with Grand Marshal to run 2nd. His preparation has been good, with his last start 3rd behind Who Shot Thebarman in the BMW very encouraging. Carries the same weight (55kg) as he did to victory in this race last year.
Libran is the lightweight hope. From barrier 3 he should get the gun run and the 53kg will help him be strong at the end of the 3200m. Has won his last three, the latest a grinding win with 58kg over 2600m in the Group 2 Chairman's.
Gallante could be the knockout chance to upset the Waller show. He was sound last time behind Libran. The more rain comes the better for him - he is 8:0-0-2 on top of the ground and 5:3-0-1 on rain affected going.
Quaddie 1st Leg: 1,3,4,7
Bets: I think Chris Waller wins the race, but I don't like the race as a betting proposition.
Race 8 1600m The Coolmore Legacy Stakes - Group 1 $1m
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. No class restriction. Fillies and Mares. Standard Weight for Age.
Vergara will drive through from barrier 1 and lead with Miss Rose de Lago pressing on towards the top too. Coronation Shallan and Noble Protector can be handy as well. Not sure what Suavito does from her wide draw. The speed should be genuine here.
Azkadellia was superb in the Doncaster last week behind the champion mare Winx. She has backed up well before, most recently when she put in the performance of the Spring carnival, running 3rd in the Myer Classic on Soft ground. Her last two runs in Group 1 Company have been great, and the wetter the better for her. I think she gets hers today.
Risque in for second. She flopped last time at 2000m, but before that she was 3rd beaten 0.6L to Palentino/Tarzino in the Australian Guineas. That run was after a super 1st up win. She has good form on rain affected tracks in New Zealand. Danger.
I think Badawiya is a very good horse. Her win 1st up at 1400m was electric. Inclined to forgive her run 2nd up. Although she was a close 4th she raced a little flat. Barrier 18 makes it very hard for her, but a huge run wouldn't surprise.
Zanbagh was a strong winner of the 1500m Group 2 Emancipation last start and can run well again. Slightly Sweet loves the wet and has to be considered a chance here. Noble Protecter looks to be back to something like her best after being awful last preparation. Keep her safe. Suavito is too good to ignore, but she wouldn't want any more rain.
Bets: Azkadellia gets her Group 1 today. 1 unit win bet.
Race 9 2000m Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes - Group 1 $4m
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Standard Weight for Age.
Leebaz and It's Somewhat may be the two to take up the running. Fenway may press forward from the outside barrier. Rising Romance could go forward in a race that looks devoid of any real speed.
With the scratching of Winx, the failure to attract International runners and a few of the top line horses out of form, this year edition of the Queen Elizabeth looks difficult to figure out. Still, there is $2.4m up for grabs for the winner all the same.
I'm quite confident in the chances of Lucia Valentina here. Her record at 2000m (7:3-1-1) is very good and her form on rain affected going (11:5-1-2) is equally as good. She has drawn barrier 12, but that might not be a bad thing come race 9 on a Soft/Heavy track. Her run in the Hong Kong Cup was extremely good, where she ran home for 5th. 1st up she was beaten 1.6L in to 4th in the Group 1 Coolmore behind some very good and in form mares. Her 2nd up record is poor (5:0-0-0), but she doesn't usually trial between her 1st and 2nd up runs, as she has done this time in. She seems to be trained to the minute and she can cap off what could be a big day for Damien Oliver.
It's very hard to go past Criterion for 2nd. With over $7m of prizemoney to his name, he is in the top 10 Australian money earners of all time. He ran well in a Golden Slipper at 2 and ran a superb 3rd in the Melbourne Cup at 5. He is a superstar. The only knock on him is that he hasn't had a real spell since winning this race in dominant fashion last year. He's been to Hong Kong, England, back here for the Melbourne Cup, back to Hong Kong and home again in the mean time. His 1st up run was very disappointing, a well beaten last. He improved last time at 2000m, running 3rd to the United States/Hauraki in the Ranvet. The big plus for him is that he grows a leg on wet tracks. Massive chance.
Preferment is another one with a good chance of winning. He is back from 2400m after winning the BMW. Prior to that he won a farcically slowly run edition of the Australian Cup (on protest). He has also won the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m in his career. His overall 2000m record is 5:3-0-1. Hugh Bowman is riding in stellar form and will no doubt give Preferment a lovely steer from barrier 5.
The United States won the Ranvet in super style after a very good first 2 runs this preparation. He has won on heavy ground before and his 4:2-1-0 record at the 2000m is good. He isn't as well credentialed as some of the others in this, but he is racing in great fashion.
Hauraki was 2nd to The United States in the Hauraki after two very good 3rds to Winx at his first two runs this time in. His 2000m record is 3:1-2-0, but he seems to be at his best on top of the ground, and he won't have that here.
Happy Clapper is racing with great heart. His 2nd in the Doncaster was good, but I think at this stage of his career he is out of his depth at Weight For Age level.
Happy Trails was the best run in the Australian Cup for mine, closing strongly from the rear in a heavily on pace dominated race. He is racing as well as ever, but he doesn't like it wet. He is the sentimental bet for me, he's been one of my favourite horses for a long time now. It would be great to see him upset some of the more fancied runners.
Quaddie 3rd Leg: 1,2,5,6,10,12
Bets: Lucia Valentina for me. 1 unit win bet.
Race 10 1200m Sensis Sapphire Stakes - Group 2 $300k
Three-Years-Old and Upwards. No class restriction. Fillies and Mares. Set Weights plus Penalties.
Two Blue should attempt to assume her front running role here. Bounding, Vezelay and No More Tears all have pace to burn. Peace Force may try and cross from the outside and Secret Agenda can put herself in the leading division. Should be good speed on.
Going to stick with Griante here in a very tough Fillies and Mares race to close to program. I thought she should have just about won the Oakleigh Plate 1st up and then was a great winner of the Group 1 1100m Galaxy. She is up greatly in weight here, but I think she is good enough to carry 58kg in this grade and win. Her record on wet tracks (7:2-4-0) is fantastic.
Cradle Me is an intersesting runner. At this stage of the day they may be running on out wide, and if they are she is a big chance. Her last start 0.9L 4th to Sultry Feeling was good. She drops from 59kg down to 54kg here. The last two times she's been around this weight she's won. She shouldn't have an issue on the Soft track.
That ties in Sultry Feeling. She was a good winner 2nd up in the 1200m Group 3 Birthday Card. She seems to race best when kept on the fresh side and she is 3 weeks between runs here. First up she beat Peeping who went on to win the Coolmore.
Bounding's Soft track record (4:3-1-0) is superb, but her first two runs this prep have been only fair. 58kg makes it tough, but she loves the 1200m trip (10:4-4-1) so there is a case for her as well.
Have to respect the emergency if she gets a run as well, that being New Zealand filly No More Tears. She's 3/3 on rain affected going and was victorious in a Group 3 over 1200m last time out in New Zealand.
Quaddie 4th Leg: 1,2,4,6,15
Bets: Happy to watch the last.
SUMMARY
Quaddie (wide): 1,3,4,7/1,3,5,6,11,14,16/1,2,5,6,10,12/1,2,4,6,15 - $100 = 9%
Quaddie (skinny): 1,3,4/3,16/1,2,5,12/2,4,6 - $100 = 139%
BETS
Race 2 - Tulsa - 0.5 units each way @ $13/$4
Race 5 - Japonisme - 1.5 unit win @ $3.20
Race 6 - Jameka - 1 unit win @ $3.50
Race 8 - Azkadellia - 1 unit win @ $3.60
Race 9 - Lucia Valentina - 1 unit win @ $7.5
For the ambitious - 5 leg win multi with the above horses - 0.25 units @ $3931.20
*Prices are as they appear on Sportsbet at time of writing*
Comments