AFL Preview: Round 3

Apr 8, 2016
4 min read

After a very predictable start to the season in Round One, and a relatively unpredictable round 2, the 2016 season has started off with a bang.

Early season form lines are notoriously tough to predict, but by round 5 we hope to have developed a solid base to work from. That being said, some things never change; Hawthorn are going to be tough to beat, Richmond are spineless and Fremantle won’t score.

It also must be noted that the new rules have so far resulted in bags of goals being kicked almost game in, game out. Early in the season, and hopefully long into the year, there should be good money to be made on individual goal scoring markets.

Port Adelaide v Essendon, Friday Night, Adelaide Oval

This game might not be as clean cut as it seems. Essendon’s troubles are well documented, but Port have been poor so far this season and a mounting injury list spells trouble for a team that promises so much. Chad Wingard and Alipate Carlile are already confirmed outs for the game adding to Jay Schultz and Hamish Hartlett who missed last week. All 4 are all walk up starters. We still expect Port to win fairly comfortably but there are some handy plays on offer if they can be sniffed out.

With Carlile out and Joe Daniher impressing last week, there's a good chance he takes Port's shaky defence to the cleaners. He’s a big boy and only getting better and we can’t see any Port defender that is capable of really keeping him down, even with limited opportunities. 1 unit bet on Joe Daniher to kick 3 or more goals @ $2.30.

Port are notoriously unpredictable but, once again referring to their injury list, we think the line of 45.5 falls in the favour of the Bombers. Not a hugely confident bet but worth a 1 unit bet @ $1.92.

Game Preview: Richmond v Adelaide, Saturday, Etihad Stadium

Richmond are a punters nightmare, because of this its difficult to have confidence in a head to head or handicap bet in this matchup.

However, Josh Jenkins is in rare form (9 goals in the first two weeks) and we expect him to continue on his way here. We will be having a 1 unit bet on him to kick 3 or more goals @ $2. If Alex Rance were to go to him instead of Taylor Walker, I would go as far as to say to reverse the bet and go with Walker instead of Jenkins. It's a gametime decision though, and Walker is still the Crows best forward, so we should see Rance line up on him.

With Rance as Richmond’s only really elite defender we expect the Crows forwards to get on top and keep the scoreboard ticking over. In conjunction with Adelaide’s ability to play at Etihad (4-1 last two seasons) Adelaide over 15.5 points looks a good proposition. The odds of $2.60 seem to be overs. Whilst not super confident, the price is too good to pass up. 1 unit bet on Adelaide over 15.5 @ $2.60.

A little kicker in this game is having a 0.5 unit bet on Eddie Betts to kick the first goal of the game. He banged the first one through on several occasions last year and snagged it last week against the Power as well. $9.00 is tremendous value for a perennial first goal scorer, get on!

GAME OF THE ROUND PREVIEW: Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Sunday, Etihad Stadium

This game shapes up to be a belter, the Bulldogs have emerged as a genuine premiership threat and if they can stay healthy should really push deep into September. Hawthorn are Hawthorn and savagely avenged a disappointing loss in round one with a pantsing of the heavily backed Eagles. If this game was at the MCG I think the Hawks would be considerably shorter but the Dogs are lethal at Etihad (11-4 last season). That in conjunction with Luke Beveridge’s inside knowledge of the Hawks makes $2.10 about the Doggies worthy of serious consideration. The youthful dogs are tenacious and if their young players can continue to play with the attacking flair and defensive ruthlessness we've seen so far in 2016, we think they will make a statement on Sunday with a quality win over the reigning premiers. We feel the Bulldogs head to head at $2.10 for 1.5 units is a good quality bet here.

SUMMARY

Bet of the Week:

Our AFL bet of the week this week is a relative no brainer, the Dogs have already come out and said they’re not going to sit on Sam Mitchell, which makes sense because they have a number of players that can be close to as damaging the other way. Plus, the play of Liam Picken as a ball winner is crucial to their recent success. So, Mitchell to get 30 or more disposals @ $1.35 is our most confident AFL bet this week. To gain a bit of value, if you are so inclined, we would consider combining this with Matt Priddis to get 30 or more disposals @ $1.89 as we expect him to come out and bounce back with aplomb from his and his sides disappointing performance last week. Combining these will get you $2.55 and will hopefully be a handy little double up of two of the games premier ball winners.

Value Bet

He has started the season in outstanding form and we expect that to continue, with Luke Parker taking out the Brett Kirk medal @ $9.00.

Round 3 Tips

Port @ $1.11

Collingwood @ $1.43

Adelaide @ $1.80

Sydney @ $1.36

Gold Coast @ $1.20

West Coast @ $1.40

North Melbourne @ $1.20

Western Bulldogs @ $2.10

Geelong @ $1.08