Morphettville Preview: Saturday 9/4/16

Apr 7, 2016
8 min read

This Saturday brings us Stakes racing from Morphettville with the Listed 1100m Manihi Classic and the Listed 1600m Laelia Stakes for the Fillies.

The track is rated a Soft (5) at the time of writing, but with no rain forecast we should race on a Good track. The rail is in the true position.

Race 1

1200m. No age restriction. BenchMark 64. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Doesn't seem to be a lot of obvious speed here. Nordic Eclipse and Saltarello should press forward from inside barriers. Tunisia Traveller can be handy as well.

I've put Cocoa Doll on top here. She won a strong Maiden at her first start and was then thrown in the deep end in Group 3 company at Caulfield, where she wasn't disgraced, beaten 5.9L. She's tuned up for this with a very nice 3rd in a trial, running slick time. Should be handy to the speed from barrier 4.

Saltarello is the next best. She won her Maiden two starts back and then ran 2nd after leading in a 3YO Handicap on Adelaide Cup day. Should find the lead easily in this.

Jester Angel, Lady Andress and Baker's Dozen are others with hopes.

Bets: Keen on Cocoa Doll. 1 unit win bet.

Race 2

1050m. Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Very competitive 3 year old race here. There looks to be plenty of speed in the race with Burst Away, American Star, Miss Gunpowder, Billabong Babe and Evil Dreams all capable of taking up forward positions.

It's hard to go past Miss Gunpowder in this. She won the Group 2 Tranquil Star over 1400m last preparation before running 8th in the 1000 Guineas. She has had three runs at 1100m and below for 2 wins and a 3rd, that 3rd only 1.3L behind Petits Filous. She gets 57.5kg after Finnegan's claim. Trialled nicely and she will be the testing material.

The Jon O'Connor trained Burst Away could be the most dangerous of the many dangers to the top weight. He has drawn well in barrier 3, with most of the other speed drawn wide. Should get a soft run from there. Trialled well on the 21st of March beating Miss Gunpowder.

Counter Pulse is building a nice record (9:5-0-1) and was a good winner first up. Carries 57kg after Childs' claim. Ran 4th in the Lightning Stakes at the end of last preparation, beaten 4L to Wild Rain. In the mix.

Viddora and Evil Dreams are the next best in an open race.

Bets: Stokes early double. Miss Gunpowder 1 unit win bet.

Race 3

1200m. No age restriction. BenchMark 75. Fillies and Mares. Handicap.

Plenty of speed here. Scanty could lead from the inside barrier with Regal Magnus, Brinkley Bliss, Miss Margarita and Tycoon Queen all capable of being handy.

This race was a bit of a mess to figure out, with a lot of the runners mixing their form around each other. In the end I landed on Chateau Cheval from the Hayes & Dabernig yard (who are on fire in SA) as the top pick. She beat Estaminet and then ran 2nd to that mare at the end of her last prep, that form looks good now. Nielsen on and a nice draw certainly help her chances.

Coachella was very good 1st up behind Scratchy Lass on Adelaide Cup Day, beating a few of the others in this event home. She looks to have come back in good order. Most of her best form is around 1400m-1600m, so staying at 1200m 2nd up is a slight concern.

She has to carry 59kg and has barrier 10, but Brinkley Bliss is good enough to win this. Her record at 1200m and at the track are good, as is her record on rain affected going if it doesn't dry out.

Miss Adele is an enigma, but there's no doubting she has ability. Trupt has mixed it with some nice horses in its career and is another chance, but has barrier 12 to contend with.

Bets: Chateau Cheval to spoil the Stokes party. 1 unit win bet

Race 4

1100m. No age restriction. BenchMark 75. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Just Kappy should cross and take up the lead from a wide barrier with Belle Melba and Shaf following her across. Regal Spur should be prominent from barrier 2.

Last Day has a good 1st up record and was only beaten 3.5L in the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint behind Eclair Choice and Lumosty last prep. Gets in with 58.5kg after Caitlin Jones' claim. Should get a cosy run off the speed from barrier 4.

Shaf is racing in super form in Adelaide at the moment, winning his last two in good style, the most recent an easy 3.5L win at Oakbank on Easter Saturday. This is tougher.

Silent Whisper hasn't lined up in a BM75 for over a year, with 6 of his last 8 runs being in Stakes company. This is clearly a more winnable race for a horse with his talent. Should get back and might find some trouble from barrier 1.

Belle Melba is a chance first up, she's won twice here before. Calianco is racing in good fashion and can't be dismissed either.

Bets: Too many quality hopes, letting this one go through to the keeper.

Race 5

2000m. No age restriction. BenchMark 90. No sex restriction. Handicap.

Gingerboy and Stimulatte should cross from the outside barriers. Mr Journeyman, River's Lane and Evenmoreaction should be close enough too. Miss Wynette may go forward again.

Putting Tenacitus on top in a tricky affair. He's been racing in consistent form without winning, the latest a sound 2nd over 2040m at Moonee Valley behind Zahspeed. Gets in well with 54kg and from barrier 5. Most importantly, he has the blinkers on for the first time, which may sharpen him up enough to win this.

I have another of Darren Weir's three runners in the race in for second in Gingerboy. He won the Mildura Cup first up and then ran a good second to Ungrateful Ellen over 1800m second up. Carries 55kg after Childs' claim. Would have him on top if not for drawing barrier 14 which could potentially pose issues.

Gladstone is racing in good form. After a good run in the Launceston Cup he won on the Parks circuit over 1950m. Can run well again.

Flying Casino, Mr Journeyman and Miss Wynette all have claims in this open race.

Quaddie Leg 1: 3,4,5,7,8,10

Bets: Not too keen to bet here. Maybe Tenacitus if he presents value on the day?

Race 6 Manihi Classic

1100m. No age restriction. No class restriction. No sex restriction. Quality.

An 18 horse field lines up here with 13 locals and 5 interstate raiders. Looks to be an abundance of speed in this. From the inside section, Tarco, I Am Gypsy, Pretty Possum and Exclusive Lass have good early speed. From the outside, The Messina Nymph and Riziz could try and cross.

If Sooboog runs here (he's accepted in Sydney as well) he will be hard to beat. He is a very frustrating horse for punters, as he can put in a seemingly inexcusable poor effort at times. Last start he was beaten 0.5L to Super Cash at Flemington, beating Stellar Collision easily in to 3rd. That horse has since franked that form. That was his first run in blinkers. If he repeats that effort here he will be winning.

The Messina Nymph has won this race last year and has also won the Wylie over 1100m at this track. She has a fantastic 1st up record (6:4-2-0) and likes Morphettville. Will have to overcome barrier 15 and I'm not sure what the tactics will be from there.

Exclusive Lass was 2nd to the smart Miss Seton Sands before running 4th in the Abell Stakes to Reldas at Moonee Valley. She will be pressing forward from barrier 9 and she will be very hard to run down, especially if leaders are winning on the day.

Nostradamus is having his first start for Stokes. He certainly has a lot of talent and has won a Gold Coast Guineas, but mixes his form greatly. Watching him here. Tarco is another on pace chance with the lightweight.

Quaddie 2nd Leg: 4,5,8,12,17

Bets: Can we claim John Hawkes as a local anymore? I think Team Hawkes will be taking the prize back to Melbourne. Sooboog 1 unit win bet.

Race 7 Laelia Stakes

1600m. Three-Years-Old. No class restriction. Fillies. Set Weights plus Penalties.

18 horse field plus 1 emergency, 9 of which are locals. Not much speed in this race at all. Expect Gai's horse Sweet Redemption to cross from out wide and lead. Turbo Miss, Thames Court and Sailing By might press forward?

Thames Court looks to be the one to beat here. She has drawn 13 and will carry 57kg, but she drew one from the outside last start, sat 3 wide the trip and won the Group 3 Alexandra Stakes by 2.5L running away. Her other two 1600m runs are a 4.3L 5th in the Edward Manifold and a 3.75L 3rd in the Fillies Classic at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate day. Bowman off, Meech on makes a difference, but she should be too good.

Sailing By is back to 1600m after flopping in the Group 1 2000m Vinery in Sydney. First up she was beaten a lip by Mahuta over 1400m. Her three career 1600m runs are a 4L 4th in the Edward Manifold, a 0.75L 2nd to Tarzino and a 5.4L defeat in the Australian Guineas. With 54.5kg she is the main danger to the top weight.

Beluga Blue is the best chance of the locals for mine. She won the Hill Smith Stakes impressively over 1800m in the Spring before running 2nd in the Wakeful to Ambience. Her two first up runs suggest the mile suits 3rd up. She might still be looking for further, but expect her to run well. Has drawn a gate (5) unlike the top two picks.

Others include Sweet Redemption, who should get an easy lead, and the Hayes & Dabernig pair Ballybrit (unlucky last time behind Thames Court) and Concubine (Walked in her maiden at her first go on top of the ground).

Quaddie 3rd Leg: 1,3,4,5,10,15

Bets: As much as I want to get a local home, it's hard to go past Thames Court. 1 unit win bet.

Race 8

1600m. No age restriction. BenchMark 75. No sex restriction. Handicap.

15 horse field to finish the day, I hope you aren't relying on the last to get you out of trouble! Mihany and Kinsgrove should cross from out wide with On A Dream and Wicked Tycoon settling just behind them. The speed looks only moderate.

With Metro Cowboy in the last. At his first go at the mile he was a strong winner over Mail It In, who came out and streeted his rivals last week. Last start he was made to work early from a wide barrier and stuck on well to run 2nd. Steps out of 3YO company for the first time, but gets in very well with 54kgs and draws ideally for a soft run in barrier 2.

Ilovewhatsebrings has an outstanding record at 1600m (8:4-3-0). Last start she settled back in the field over 1600m on Adelaide Cup day and ran on strongly to score. Can repeat the dose again here.

Mihany is 0 for 3 at 1600m, but two of those runs have been in Group company. His recent form over 1400m has been solid, and his last start win at Oakbank was fantastic. He was wide outside the leaders all the way and kicked clear at the top of the straight to win by 4L. If he gets a soft lead from barrier 10 he will be hard to run down.

Quaddie 4th Leg: 2,6,13

Bets: Hard to split the top 3. Could back Metro Cowboy if I need a winner come the last!

SUMMARY

Quaddie (wide): 3,4,5,7,8,10/4,5,8,12,17/1,3,4,5,10,15/2,6,13 - $100 = 18.5%

Quaddie (skinny): 4,5,10/4,8,17/1,3,4/2,6,13 - $100 = 123%

BETS

Race 1 - Cocoa Doll - 1 unit win @ $3.40

Race 2 - Miss Gunpowder - 1 unit win @ $3.60

Race 3 - Chateau Cheval - 1 unit win @ $3.30

Race 6 - Sooboog - 1 unit win @ $3.70

Race 7 - Thames Court - 1 unit win @ $2.50

For the ambitious - 5 leg win multi with the above horses - 0.25 units @ $373.62